In the conditions of the decline in which the world economy is located, the infrastructure sectors, in particular, the transport sector, have suffered quite badly. Enough has been written and said about the global crisis in freight transport, especially those carried out by sea, and here the situation in Russia differs slightly from the global state of affairs, at least in terms of the dynamics of operating indicators.
Revenue from passenger and cargo air transportation
Source: IATA
The turning point, by and large, came back during the financial crisis of 2008 - since then, the world trade turnover has not yet been able to confidently return to the previous state of vigorous growth, limited to a sluggish recovery, but passenger transportation with the recovery of disposable income of the population was able to - the industry has been booming over the past five years.
Dynamics of volumes of passenger and cargo air transportation
Source: IATA
With regard to civil air transportation, however, the situation is remarkable in that the situation on the domestic market with the onset of the currency crisis diverged from the global trend as a whole by almost 180%. There are several main reasons for this, and it is their consideration, coupled with a general overview of this market, which, without exaggeration, covers almost the entire planet, and this article will be devoted.
The history of civil aviation goes back over a century. Since the First World War, it has experienced several peculiar intra-industry technological structures before taking the direction of development that most airlines are now following. The first passenger monoplanes were small, carried 7-10 passengers and were mainly variations on the theme of military aircraft of those design bureaus in which they were created. In the 1930s, the trend reversed with the emergence of the DC-3, the most massive passenger aircraft in history, which, in turn, served the military well. The 50s were marked by the appearance of the first serial jet liners, which by the early 70s, with the active growth of transcontinental passenger traffic and the emergence of more powerful engines, led to a period of gigantomania in the industry, when manufacturers tried to build, and airlines, in turn, operated as possibly larger planes that could accommodate several hundred people, since the Boeing-707 and other aircraft of this type used at that time could no longer cope with the flow of passengers on busy destinations. The successful introduction of such airliners was prevented by the oil crisis, which made the use of large and uneconomical machines unprofitable, but their capacity still played a role - with a consistent increase in passenger traffic, they are still actively used by large airlines.
Historical dynamics of world passenger turnover
Towards the beginning of this century, the emphasis shifted towards the development of engines with greater fuel efficiency and the large-scale use of small regional aircraft with a capacity of about 120-180 seats - according to the forecasts of the overwhelming majority of industry experts, the near future lies with them, and over the next twenty years 70% of demand on the part of airlines it will be for this class of aircraft. In total, the world's airlines now use about 22 thousand passenger airliners, it is assumed that this number will double by 2034, while the total demand will be about 38 thousand aircraft.
Forecast of changes in the world fleet of passenger aircraft
Source: Boeing Market Review
Of this number, 16 thousand will replace obsolete aircraft operated by airlines now, and 22 thousand will provide an increase in the fleet corresponding to the growing passenger traffic - analysts agree that in the next two decades the total passenger traffic will grow more than two and a half times, with the lion's share of this increase will fall on regional transportation, mainly in Asia.
Forecast of the dynamics of world passenger turnover
Source: United Aircraft Corporation Market Review
The current market trend is mainly characterized by the consequences of the liberalization of the air transportation market, namely the increased number of airlines, increased competition and falling tariffs, which makes flights more affordable and supports passenger demand. Also, an essential characteristic of the market today is globalization - the concept of national companies is very vague, many carriers operate under code-share agreements, serving "groupage" flights with a transfer from one company's aircraft to another's aircraft within the framework of one ticket. At the same time, the process of consolidation of companies is observed in developed markets - this applies to Europe, the United States and Russia. In parallel with this, the boundaries between price segments that are occupied by specific companies are gradually blurring - there is a convergence of traditional transportation and low-cost format in the form of combined business models.
At the moment, the undisputed leader in terms of passenger traffic is the United States, not least due to the highest intensity of domestic traffic, due to the vast area, the relatively even location of large cities in the eastern part of the country, as well as the high degree of population mobility. In the list of ten airlines that became the world leaders in terms of passenger turnover in 2015, American carriers - American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Delta Airlines and United Arilines, respectively, are in 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 6th places.
Top-10 airlines in terms of passenger turnover performed in 2015, billion pkm
In terms of the volume of the air fleet, by mid-2016, American companies occupy the first five places at all - American Airlines with 1556 boards, Delta Air lines with 1330, United Airlines with 1229, Southwest Airlines with 720 and the world leader in air cargo transportation FedEx Express with 688. So Thus, it can be calculated that only the top five companies account for about a quarter of the entire world fleet. Also, American Airlines, United Airlines and Delta Air lines lead in the number of airports connected by flights of these companies, however, in terms of the number of countries included in the route map, American carriers do not even fall into the top five - the leader is Turkish Airlines, which operates flights to 108 countries. of the world, followed by the largest European airlines - Lufthansa, Air France and British Airways, Qatar Airways closes the five.
Turning directly to the current state of the market, it makes sense, first of all, to note that there were two main factors that influenced the global dynamics of demand in the last completed year - these are the gradually growing demand from the countries of the East and the continued collapse of oil prices. The fall in prices in the commodity market directly mediated the fall in the dollar cost of aviation fuel, the costs of which account for about a third of the total operating expenses of airlines. Due to their reduction, carriers were able to afford to reduce tariffs without loss of profitability, thereby attracting new customers.
Aviation fuel cost dynamics
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, an American-European duopoly developed in the production of long-haul passenger airliners (that is, aircraft with a capacity of 150 people and a maximum flight range of more than 4000-5000 km): the market was divided by Boeing and Airbus (Russia produces aircraft of the same size - Tu -204 and Il-96, but their production is single for state needs). The same concentration took place in the production of regional jet airliners (with a capacity of up to 100 people and a maximum flight range of less than 4,000 km): by the beginning of the 2000s, there were two companies that produce such aircraft in truly serial production - the Canadian Bombardier and the Brazilian Embraer (in Russia and in Ukraine there is, or rather, the small-scale production of an aircraft of this class An-148). It was in the regional segment that the countries that wanted to join a narrow circle of manufacturers of jet passenger aircraft first appeared: Russia with the Sukhoi Superjet project, China with the ARJ-21 aircraft and Japan with the Mitsubishi Regional Jet aircraft. But the market for long-haul aircraft is much more capacious and profitable, and at the turn of the 2010s. three more players announced projects in this segment (analogues of Boeing 737 and A319 / 320/321): Russia with the MC-21 project of the Irkut corporation, China with the C919 aircraft from COMAC and the Canadian Bombardier, whose new CSeries airliner is approaching in terms of passenger capacity " bottom "to the shortest versions of the Boeing 737 and to the European A319.
Giants Predictions
Aircraft corporations regularly publish 20-year forecasts for the passenger aircraft and transportation markets - few industries have presented the same long-term forecasts to the public. At the same time, the demand for specific models is not indicated - the breakdown is by class of airliners. Forecasts are made on the basis of thorough and many years of marketing and economic research, but, of course, they cannot foresee such events, which at one time hit the market hard, such as the terrorist attacks in the USA on September 11, 2001 or the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. According to Boeing's latest forecast (published in the fall of 2014), 36,770 mainline airliners will be produced by 2033, and their global fleet will increase from 20,910 aircraft in 2013 to 42,180 in 2033. produced by 2033, will amount to a staggering $ 5.2 trillion (almost a third of the US GDP or about three of Russia's GDP in 2014). Of the 25,680 aircraft produced in the forecasted twenty years, that is, almost 70%, in the Boeing classification, will be “long-haul aircraft with one aisle” (Boeing 737, A320, MS-21 and C919), and in value terms, their share will be about 48%. Regional aircraft, to which Boeing includes the Sukhoi Superjet, will be produced 2,490, but their monetary share will be less than 2%, or about $ 100 billion. At the same time, the market capacity of Russia and the CIS countries, which are allocated by the American corporation into a separate regional market along with the Northern America, Latin America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East and Africa, by 2033, will amount to 1,330 aircraft worth $ 150 billion (or 3% of the total world market). The former USSR will need 990 aircraft of the MS-21 type, and 160 regional airliners.
Why "Tu" and "Il" disappeared
In the best years, the Soviet aviation industry produced up to 150 passenger jet aircraft a year. In 1991, the last year of the existence of the USSR, 37 Tu-154s, six Il-86s, one Il-96, two Tu-204s and 13 Yak-42s were produced, i.e., a total of 59 jet airliners, while EADS (now Airbus) has produced about 170 and Boeing about 600 passenger aircraft. Throughout the 90s. in the West, there were processes of consolidation of the aircraft industry (as a result of which only Boeing remained in the United States instead of three aircraft manufacturers), while all Soviet design bureaus and factories were privatized (or separated into state enterprises) separately. After the collapse of the USSR, the civil aircraft industry in Russia found itself in a state of collapse, which was caused by a combination of many factors: a severe economic crisis, under-implementation of new projects, lack of modern maintenance and financial support for aircraft sales, resulting from the collapse of air travel, a large surplus fleet of virtually free for airlines machines. Starting in 2001, the state began to look for forms of consolidation of the industry, which ended only in the second half of this decade with the creation of the UAC. At the same time, there was a difficult process of integration “from below”, the core of which was the two surviving companies that had funds from the sale of fighters to China and India - Sukhoi and Irkut. It is not surprising that these two companies have put forward projects for new civil aircraft - Sukhoi Superjet, which won the competition in 2002 to create a regional aircraft, and MS-21, the government decree on the creation of which was issued in 2010. At the same time, neither the Tu-204, of which about 80 units were produced in total, nor the Il-96 (more than 20) did not become truly serial due to the lack of introduction in the 90s - early 2000s. their engines, very weak sales support, and IL-96 - and because of the four-engine, less economical than Western competitors, the scheme. At the same time, Boeing and Airbus did not sit idly on the Russian market during the 2000s. occupied a dominant position on it as the mass decommissioning of Soviet aircraft. The issue of international cooperation is no less important. In the mid-2000s, European EADS was the closest to becoming the main partner of the Russian aviation industry: it became the owner of 10% of Irkut shares, and the Russian VTB bank bought 5% of EADS shares on the market. However, there were no decisive steps towards partnership - for various reasons, including political ones.
Airbus's 20-year forecast, published at the June Le Bourget Air Show, is not radically different from Boeing's forecast, but is more moderate. Sales volume by 2034 will amount to $ 4.9 trillion, the total number of new airliners produced will be 32,585 (12% lower than Boeing's), the number of cars with one passenger aisle will be 22,927, and 55% in terms of cost. There is, however, a notable difference: Airbus predicts that demand for extra-large aircraft (such as the A380 and Boeing 747) will be 1,550, while Boeing expects only 620 to find buyers. This is not surprising, since the largest and most modern aircraft of this type, the A380, is produced by Airbus, while Boeing abandoned the development of an aircraft of this size in favor of a radical modernization of the Boeing 747. the world will increase to 91 from the current 47 (from Russia and now, and in 20 years they will be represented only by the Moscow air hub), namely, the A380 concept is focused on transportation between them.
Share for Sukhoi Superjet
Canadian Bombardier's forecast published last year focuses on aircraft of the size it produces. The company's marketers believe that by 2033 the demand for airliners from 100 to 149 seats (which includes short versions of the Boeing 737 and A319, as well as the CSeries airliner being developed by the Canadian company) will amount to 7100 units, or $ 465 billion in monetary terms. In its forecast published at the last Le Bourget, Embraer expects the delivery of 6,350 jet aircraft with a capacity of 70 to 130 seats by 2034, including 380 in Russia and the CIS.
Thus, all forecasts of global aircraft manufacturers provide for a significant market niche for Sukhoi Superjet. The truly serial production of this aircraft (37 units produced), which began last year, has led to the fact that it took about 10% of the total sales of regional jet airliners.
View from Russia
A representative of Sukhoi Civil Aircraft said that, according to the company's forecasts, for the period 2015–2034. the capacity of the market for cars with a capacity of 91–120 seats will amount to 2,600 units, and the SSJ share - 14%, ie 364 units.
However, much more ambitious is the MS-21 project, which, like the Chinese C919, is aimed at the most capacious niche in the world market, where it will face much tougher competition from Boeing and Airbus, which will be brought to the market in 2016–2017. its new modifications Boeing 737MAX and A320neo, equipped with new highly efficient engines. The MC-21 will have the same engine as the A320neo, but it will be the first airliner with a composite (black) wing and will be equipped with a large number of the latest innovative systems, only the first flight is planned in 2016 (Sukhoi Superjet from the first test flight to the first commercial took about four years).
Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the Aviaport agency, believes that the feasibility of sales plans for new types of Russian aircraft is determined by three factors. First, the production capabilities of the assembly sites - and there are no risks here. Secondly, the stability of cooperation in the supply of components - and this risk in the event of an aggravation of the international situation, the Russian aviation industry does not control. Thirdly, the possibilities of promotion to the world market - this issue is also not controlled by the aviation industry, but if the existing export support policy is maintained, the situation will look controllable.
A major reform has begun in the Russian aviation industry since 2006, when the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) was established. Now we are talking about the merger of the UAC, the Irkut corporation and the Sukhoi Civil Aircraft company into a single structure that will deal with all the civilian programs of the UAC. It will also become the head division of the entire corporation.
This means that the UAC considers civil aircraft construction to be the key direction. On the one hand, in the context of a reduction in the state defense order, the inevitability of which has already been repeatedly declared at the highest level, aircraft manufacturers do not have to choose. On the other hand, if the authority of Russia in the field of military aviation is not challenged by anyone, then on the civil aircraft market our country is classified as an outsider.
Which is quite fair, considering that only 30 civil aircraft were produced in Russia last year. For comparison, the market leaders, Boeing and Airbus, produced 748 and 577 aircraft, respectively.
A logical question arises - what can the UAC count on in the current situation?
Big pie
According to the forecast, which the United Aircraft Corporation presented at the July MAKS-2017 air show, the global demand for new passenger aircraft with a capacity of more than 30 seats in the next twenty years will amount to 41,800 aircraft with a total value of nearly $ 6 trillion.
At the same time, narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of 120 or more seats will be in the greatest demand among airlines, accounting for 63% of the total number of new aircraft. For this segment, the UAC is developing the MC-21 program.
About 4.6 thousand units of new jet aircraft with a capacity of 61-120 seats will be sold by 2036 (11% of the total). This segment in the UAC is represented by the Sukhoi Superjet SSJ 100 program.
The demand for turboprop aircraft with a capacity of 30 seats or more will amount to about 2.3 thousand units. In this segment, the UAC is developing the Il-114 program.
The total demand for wide-body aircraft will amount to 7,450 aircraft. For this segment, the UAC, together with the Chinese Civil Aviation Corporation COMAS, are planning to develop and produce a new generation wide-body long-range aircraft. A joint venture was opened in Shanghai this year to manage the program.
That is, theoretically, Russian aircraft manufacturers have something to answer the market demands. In practice, everything is a little more complicated.
Three gray horses
To begin with, only Sukhoi Superjet is actually present on the market today. This is the first domestic aircraft developed after a quarter-century break. Unfortunately, the hopes associated with this project were only partially justified.
Pilots who have flown the Superjet rate the aircraft very highly - no worse than the Airbus A-320 (with better efficiency) and definitely better than the Brazilian Embraer. At the same time, they recognize the presence of many minor malfunctions, which, however, do not affect flight safety. The main complaint of professionals is related to very poor service support, which is why the planes are idle for a long time without spare parts.
Passengers have more complaints - there is poor noise and vibration isolation ("I sat in the 7F seat near the engine and received free vibration massage - very loud noise and vibration"), as well as small and low windows.
Most often, Russians compare the SSJ 100 with the UAZ patriot car: good transport for passengers without any special pretensions. It is noteworthy that the Mexican pilots (the Mexican company Interjet acquired 30 SSJ 100) nicknamed the "Superjet" tank.
It is clear that with such characteristics it is not easy to conquer the world market. As a result, the project remains chronically unprofitable. To reach the profitability of the UAC, it is necessary to sell at least 300 aircraft, but so far it has sold three times less. The maximum annual production of SSJ 100 was reached in 2014 - 35 aircraft were produced. In 2015-2016, due to changes in the macroeconomic situation, sales plans were adjusted to 17 and 18 units, respectively.
For comparison, the Brazilian Embraer last year produced 225 aircraft: 117 business jets and 108 regional aircraft - Superjet's competitors. It is not surprising that recently the president of the UAC, Yuri Slyusar, announced that it was abandoning large volumes of SSJ production: the corporation plans to produce 30-40 Superjets per year, but is not going to "scale this project to large volumes."
Now the main hope of the UAC has become the MS-21 project. This aircraft is close in characteristics to the current segment leader - the Canadian Bombardier СS300. Like the Canadian aircraft, the Russian one is built according to the most modern technologies using composite materials and with the same Pratt & Whitney engines (although in the future it is planned to install the domestic PD-14 engine on the MS-21). Economical engines and a lightweight body allow the Bombardier CS300 and MC-21 to save up to 20% of fuel compared to Boeing and Airbus aircraft of this class. At the same time, the MC-21 is more spacious than the Bombardier CS300 - it has 176 passenger seats (the Canadian has 130), which makes its use more profitable.
The Il-114 is an airplane from the past: it made its first flight back in 1999 and until 2012 was produced at the Tashkent Aviation Production Association named after I. V.P. Chkalov. In total, ten Il-114s were produced with Pratt & Whitney Canada engines. Now these aircraft are included in the Uzbekistan Airways fleet.
The United Aircraft Corporation plans to resume production of the Il-114 with Russian TV7-117ST engines at the plant in Lukhovitsy, which will produce 12-18 aircraft per year. The total volume of production, including civilian and special versions, can be 100 vehicles. The updated Il-114 should make its first flight in 2018.
Aeroflot against the Ministry of Industry and Trade
The main problem that the UAC must solve is not related to the development or production of new aircraft, but to their sale. It is already clear that the "Superjet" will not reach the production rate of 300 aircraft required to pay off the project. The MS-21 with the current investment will pay off after the sale of 200 aircraft. The already produced Il-114 has the greatest chances of paying off - if the planned 100 aircraft are produced and sold, the project can be considered commercially successful.
Meanwhile, according to Boeing estimates, the needs of the Russian market for the foreseeable future will amount to a maximum of 40 passenger aircraft of all types per year. It is unlikely that MS-21, SSJ-100 and Il-114 will occupy all this volume. Although the government is doing everything possible and impossible for this. In particular, the Ministry of Industry and Trade proposed to abolish the privileges for the import of foreign aircraft, which "will establish customs and tariff protection of the domestic market in the interests of Russian aircraft - SSJ 100 extended version and MS-21-300."
This innovation was actively opposed by Aeroflot, whose fleet in 2018 should receive 31 (!) Foreign aircraft. The company sent a letter to First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, in which it is noted that if the preferential regime is suspended, additional costs for the import of aircraft will exceed 25 billion rubles. As a result, Aeroflot will have to reduce its purchase plan for aircraft "of both foreign and Russian production", which will not allow expanding the route network, "including regional and socially significant routes."
Photo: portal Moscow 24 / Lidia Shironina
Unreal export
Even if the main Russian airline is not eager to abandon the import of aircraft in order to support the Superjet and MS-21, then what can we say about foreigners. Moreover, foreign buyers of new Russian aircraft will have to take into account a bunch of additional risks.
First, the Irkut corporation, the manufacturer of the MC-21, is known in the world as a manufacturer of fighters. The first civil aircraft produced by the corporation will be greeted by airlines with great caution. It will be possible to talk about purchases only when the experience of operating the MC-21 at Aeroflot has been gained (which will have to acquire new aircraft on a voluntary-compulsory basis).
Secondly, any new aircraft requires fine-tuning and revision, which on average takes about 15 years. And no serious airline will order large quantities of aircraft that have not passed this period. But even after that, new manufacturers such as Irkut can only rely on orders from small carriers that do not have their own aircraft maintenance and repair facilities. It is these companies that are less tied to market leaders.
Thirdly, in 2018, the Chinese C919 enters the medium-haul aircraft market, which, relying on the massive support of its government, can become a serious competitor to all global manufacturers.
Thus, for at least the next 15-20 years, the Russian aircraft industry will be a planned loss-making industry, living largely on budget subsidies. In these conditions, it is very likely that the Ministry of Finance will lobby for another optimization of the aircraft industry, after which only the export-attractive military segment will remain from the industry.
The transformation of the economy is accompanied by the transition from transnational integration to transcontinental integration, which manifests itself for the world aircraft industry market in the emergence of prerequisites for the disappearance of such concepts as "American / European / Russian aviation industry": the capacities of the Eastern European aviation industry are used in the production of American aircraft; Chinese aircraft manufacturer AVIC cooperates with the European concern Airbus and the American corporation General Electric, etc. Any attempt to isolate oneself within the framework of a national scale has no prospects today. This determines the primary importance of the influence of global factors on the development of an individual company. Therefore, the modern world market of civil aircraft, on the one hand, reflects the main global economic trends of today, but on the other hand, it has its own specific development.
Trends in the development of world aircraft construction are simultaneously highlighted in the studies of aircraft building corporations that have their own research centers, and in research conducted by scientists as part of their activities in scientific institutions. Among the main studies that form the basis of the strategies of aircraft corporations are "Global Market Forecast" from Airbus, "Current Market Outlook 20122031" from Boeing, "Market Forecast" from Bombardier, Worldwide Market Forecast 2014-2033 from Japan Aircraft Development Corporation and some others. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) also regularly publishes its own research (eg "Airplane Outlook"). Partially based on such forecasts, the prospects of aircraft construction in the scientific research of J. Wenswin and A. Wells are highlighted. Sokolova, M.V. Boykova, S.D. Gavrilov and NA. Gavrilichova A. Khatypova and T.T. Khalilov, T. Boetsha, T. Viger and A. Vitmer, Y. Prikhodko and other authors.
First of all, in the available studies, the transformation of the market structure of the aircraft industry is noted and, accordingly, the strategies of the leading market agents are analyzed. However, at the same time, certain features characterizing changes in the aircraft industry are highlighted, and the available forecasts for the development of the aircraft industry market are based mainly on forecasting the demand for aircraft and studying the factors affecting it, and do not take into account the general direction of socio-economic development as a whole. That is, we can talk about the absence of an integrated approach in the analysis of the current state and changes in the industry, which significantly reduces the reliability and completeness of forecasts. Taking this into account, there is a need to systematize individual manifestations and form a holistic view of changes in the global aircraft industry market. At the same time, from our point of view, the formation of a holistic view of changes in the global aircraft industry market provides for (Figure 3.4):
firstly, the analysis of the structure of the world aircraft market, definition of segmentation criteria and main market agents, generalization of the main trends;
secondly, the analysis of external factors affecting the development of aircraft construction in terms of quantitative and qualitative parameters;
third, the analysis of the behavior of market actors, determining the ways of organizing a business inherent in market leaders.
Figure 3.4. at Objectives of researching changes in the global aircraft market
Aircraft market segments and structure
The modern structure of the aircraft construction market has a matrix character: at the same time, there is a distribution, on the one hand, into two sectors - the production of final products and consumer services (spare parts, components, services), on the other hand, each of these sectors is divided into sectors of civil and military products (Figure 3.5).
Several companies can be distinguished in the military aircraft market: Boeing - approximately 22% in the global military aircraft manufacturing in 2011, Lockheed Martin - 21%, Northrop Grumman - 11% (the combined share of US companies in the global military aircraft industry is 54%), Eurofighter - about 11%, EADS - 10%, Dassault - 4% (the aggregate share of European Union companies in the global military aircraft industry is 25%), the share of Russian companies is 20.6%. At the same time, the creation of a common Anglo-Saxon transatlantic defense market with a powerful diffusion of the military-industrial complexes of the countries is observed, and on the territory of the European Union - the formation of a single defense market within the countries included in it.
Figure 3.5. at
Among the specific trends in the development of the military aircraft market, the following can be noted:
In developing countries, instead of buying new military aircraft, there is an increase in demand for the modernization of existing weapons with the provision of appropriate operational support;
Economically developed countries get rid of technically obsolete aircraft, stimulating its sale by transferring rights to licensed production, assistance in establishing service infrastructure;
The formation of demand for military aircraft depends on the political and economic climate on the planet and the strategic relationship between countries.
the biggest obstacle to analyzing the military aircraft market is political bias, which manifests itself in the secrecy or lack of reliable information about the characteristics of the latest technology and contracts have been concluded. Taking into account these factors, the ratio of the civil and military aircraft market (the total share of the military aircraft industry is about 40% of the global aircraft industry, and in the final products - about 20%), as well as the trend of borrowing civilian and military aircraft technologies, we focus on the study of the civilian market. aircraft industry in the world.
At the same time, in the civil aircraft industry, the final output is distributed between aircraft and helicopters as 88-90% / 12-10% in favor of aircraft. Therefore, we will focus the analysis of trends in the aircraft market on the example of the civil aircraft market and will carry it out through the stages shown in Figure 3.6.
Figure 3.6. at
In order to characterize the world civil aircraft market, given the significant differentiation of aviation technology, it is necessary to consider the criteria for its segmentation.
Most often, the civil aircraft market, depending on the type of fuselage and flight range, is divided into the following segments: the market for medium and long-haul wide-body aircraft, the market for medium- and long-haul narrow-body aircraft, the market for regional and the market for local aircraft (Appendix B).
This type of market segmentation is rather arbitrary and can be modified in different studies - in addition, smaller segments are distinguished or a larger hem is used.
Also, three criteria are used for segmenting the aviation market: the type of aircraft power plant (turboprop, jet), the intended purpose of the aircraft (passenger, transport) and passenger or cargo capacity. Therefore, in order to form a more holistic picture of the aircraft industry market, in the future, for market analysis, we will use mixed segmentation, presented in Appendix D.
The development of segments of the civil aircraft market is associated with the range of transportation, therefore, we will characterize the distribution of world passenger traffic by type of aircraft and flight range (see Figure 3.7). The main passenger traffic falls on narrow-body aircraft, which operate on routes from 500 to 4500 km, reaching the ASK indicator (Available Seat Kilometers - passenger seat-kilometer) in the amount of 300 to 750 million passenger seat-kilometers on lines from 1000 to 3500 km. Turboprop aircraft mainly operate on lines up to 1500 km, the same length is the main one for regional planes - on lines up to 1500 km, passenger traffic is more than 100 million passenger seats-kilometer. Passenger traffic on lines from 4000 km and more is carried out mainly by wide-body aircraft. It should be noted that routes up to 4500 km account for about 65% of passenger traffic.
Figure 3.7. at
In terms of passenger capacity with a range of up to 1000 km, the most common are airliners with a capacity of 120-169 seats, from 1001 to 2000 km - 120-169 and 170-229 seats, from 2001 to 4500 km - 120169, 170-229, 230-309 and 310-399 seats, more than 4500 km - 230-309, 310-399, 400-499 and 500-800 seats (Figure 3.8).
Figure 3.8. in (built from data)
The structure of the fleet of jet passenger aircraft in 2013 is shown in Fig. 3.9-10, from which it can be seen that the largest share in the composition of aircraft is made up with a significant predominance of aircraft with a capacity of 120-169 seats (51.22%), in second place are aircraft with a capacity 60-99 places (19.39%).
Analysis of the dynamics of the fleet of turboprop passenger aircraft in the world for 2000-2013. (Figure 3.11) demonstrates a general decline in the operation of turboprop passenger aircraft, which mostly affects the segment of aircraft with a capacity of 15-39 seats (by almost 30% in 2013 compared to 2000) and is slightly offset by an increase in the segment of aircraft with a capacity of over 60 places (almost 12% in 2013 relative to 2000).
Figure 3.9. in (built from data)
Figure 3.10. in (built from data)
Figure 3.11. in (built from data)
This is due to the appearance in the second half of the 1990s and early 2000s. jets with less than 50 seats, which are more economical than the corresponding turboprop aircraft. As a result, the structure of the turboprop passenger aircraft market in 2013 (see Figure 3.12) consists of three segments: aircraft with a capacity of 15-39 seats -51.66% (68.62% in 2000), 40-59 seats - 22.56% (23.9 in 2000), more than 60 places - 25.79% (7.49% in 2000).
Figure 3.12. in (built from data)
Let's analyze the distribution of types of airliners in the regional context (Figure 3.13 and Figure 3.14).
Figure 3.13. in (built from data)
As seen in Figure 3.13 and Appendix D, regional jets are most common in North America (53.62% of total regional jets) and Europe (16.91%). Narrow-body jets are in greatest demand in the Asia-Pacific region (29.11% of the total number of narrow-body jets), North America (28.3%), and Europe (22.8%). Wide-body jets are used more for transportation in the Asia-Pacific region (37.18% of the total number of wide-body jets), Europe (20.99%), North America (16.66%).
Turboprop passenger aircraft (data in Fig. 3.14 and Appendix E) are generally most operated in the Asia-Pacific region (25.44% of the total number of turboprop aircraft). At the same time, North America (30.68% of the total number of turboprop aircraft with a capacity of 15-39 seats) and the Asia-Pacific region (22.61%) are the leaders in the local transportation market, in the regional market in the segment of aircraft with a capacity of 40-59 seats. The Pacific region (23.92% of the total number of turboprop aircraft with a capacity of 40-59 seats) and the CIS countries (22.15%), in the segment of aircraft with a capacity of over 60 seats - the Asia-Pacific region (32.45% of the total number of turboprop aircraft with a capacity of over 60 seats), Europe (26.8%) and North America (16.61%). To explain this proliferation of jet and turboprop passenger aircraft, an analysis of the economic and other specifics of the world's regions is required.
Figure 3.14. in (built from data)
Let's analyze the development trends of the jet cargo aircraft market (Figure 3.15).
Between 2000 and 2013, the total number of jet freighters decreased by 4.5% and the structure of this market changed. Thus, in 2000, 39.67% of the total were narrow-body cargo aircraft and 40.01% of medium wide-body cargo aircraft. After a sharp increase in the use of narrow-body cargo aircraft in 2005 to 50.28% of the total in 2013, a proportional market structure was established (approximately 33% each segment).
Figure 3.15. in (built from data)
In addition to the economic factors that determine the use of cargo aircraft, it is necessary to take into account the existing practice of converting passenger aircraft into cargo aircraft. So, about 50% of the cargo aircraft operating in the world today were converted into cargo aircraft. Conversion of passenger aircraft begins after 10 years of operation, since the peak in use of passenger aircraft is 15 years. After conversion, up to the time of scrapping, the converted cargo aircraft have been operating for about 25 years. Since 2003, there has been a downward trend in the practice of converting (Figure 3.16).
Figure 3.16. in (built from data)
Regionally, analysis of the operation of cargo aircraft in 2012 (Figure 3.17) shows that the largest share of the use of cargo aircraft falls on three regions: Asia-Pacific (29%), Europe (26%) and North America (25%) ...
Figure 3.17. in (built from data)
Let's compare in the regional context the movement of freight and passenger traffic. As can be seen in Figure 3.18, the distribution of cargo and passenger aircraft across regions of the world is similar, suggesting that the same factors will affect these markets.
Figure 3.18. in (built from data)
Let us summarize the analysis of the development of aircraft market segments (final products) by simultaneously determining the distribution of segments by manufacturer and aircraft type (Figure 3.19).
At present, two conglomerates Boeing (CELA) and Airbus S. A. S. (European Union) compete on the mainline airliners market (25.2% of the global aircraft manufacturing market), with a combined market share of over 90%; in the regional aircraft market - Bombardier (Canada) and Embraer (Brazil) with a combined market share of about 78%. Production of the CIS countries, including Ukraine, reaches about 2% of civil aircraft.
Figure 3.19. c (final products 2010-2011 according to data)
Thus, the modern world fleet of civil aircraft consists of jet and turboprop aircraft, which has a wide segmentation. Each type of aircraft, through technical and economic characteristics, has its own market niche and a certain competition area (flight range up to 1000 km; passenger capacity 60-99 seats). In general, the most common in 2013 are jet aircraft. Turboprop aircraft are gradually being decommissioned due to aging and are not replaced in an appropriate number by new ones, but it is impossible to talk about the decline of this market segment. Based on the results of the analysis of the operation of aircraft in a regional context, it is impossible to unambiguously determine the prevalence of one type of aircraft or another, therefore, the explanation of the general dynamics and distribution of traffic in the regions of the world requires the study of factors influencing the development of the aircraft market. At the same time, it should be noted the uneven development of aircraft construction in the regions.
The aviation industry as an industry emerged at the beginning of the 20th century. By 1910-12, in many countries there were several enterprises engaged in the production of aircraft. Interest in the industry arose during the times of world wars, in particular, World War II, when air supremacy became one of the determining factors in one or another battle. After 1945, the industry continued to grow rapidly, during this period, paying more attention to civil aviation. By the end of the 80s, the aviation industry approached the modern model and then practically did not change its appearance. Currently, several countries of the leaders of the aviation industry have formed in this sector, holding their positions.
Modern leaders - what are their features
Currently, the world leadership in the aviation industry belongs to several states, including the United States, Russia, the EU and Brazil. These countries have the largest number of factories and plants operating in the industry. Some companies within the state can afford to produce single parts, but all of them ultimately come to larger enterprises that form the basis of the national aircraft industry.
The peculiarity of the leading companies in the countries leading the aviation industry is the fact that they all cooperate with the state. If we are talking about civil aviation, then this is servicing large carriers, national flights, if about military aviation, it is providing for the needs of the armed forces.
Leading companies in the civil aviation industry
The civil aircraft industry is the most expensive group, which includes only large enterprises with a narrow specialization of the national or international level.
Two large corporations are leading in the civil aircraft industry today:
- Boeing (American company);
- Airbus (a joint EU corporation);
- United Aviation Corporation of Russia.
In other countries, there are no enterprises similar in scale. A key feature of these companies is the dispersal of production throughout the country or several countries (EU). This approach allows you to sharpen production at one plant for the production of one part, to drag factories to resources and, therefore, to minimize production costs. In addition, these companies were able to appear only thanks to the merger of the giants. So, for example, the UAC includes several large enterprises "Su", "Mig", "Il", "Tu", "Yak", focused on general production.
Other large companies producing aviation in the world are: Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, United Technologies, Textron (USA).
China will most likely be among the leading aircraft manufacturers in the near future, but today its production cannot yet compete with the world giants.
Military aviation
In the military sector, the leaders of the aviation industry look different. The following brands fall into this category:
- Su (made in Russia);
- Mig (Russia);
- Panavia Tornado (Germany);
- Eurofighter Typhoon (produced by the European Union);
- Boeing (USA joint production).
In this sector, it is quite difficult to determine leadership between brands, since companies producing such equipment are reluctant to advertise their own sales. However, we can say with confidence that the top three leaders in this sector remain unchanged: the United States, the European Union and Russia. Interesting developments in this industry also belong to Israel, Canada, China and some other countries, but they are produced in a much more modest volume.
