The global civil aircraft market is 90% "captured" by the American company Boeing and the European manufacturer Airbus. However, it seems that the hegemony of these companies will soon come to an end. Who is able to press these titans? Which companies and countries are going to get involved in the fight?
The civil aircraft market is a global growing market without national borders and at the same time is characterized by fierce competition from domestic manufacturers. Daunting technological challenges and high costs are the reason why only a small number of countries and a few large companies operate in the aircraft industry. Thus, competition in the aircraft manufacturer market is oligopolistic; dominated by a few large international companies with a strong influence on the entire market.
The leaders of the civil aircraft industry in recent decades are Boeing (USA) and Airbus (EC), which occupy more than 90% of the world market for passenger aircraft, but the technological development of the industry and the emerging demand patterns in the coming years will lead to the destruction of the already familiar duopoly of Western aircraft manufacturing giants. In this work, we deliberately do not include in the analysis the plight of the domestic aviation industry, which was the subject of another article by the author (Tolkachev S.A. the world market of civilian airliners, where a place has been prepared for Russia in the backyards after the inglorious surrender of positions (in fact, as in the First World War) as a result of the collapse of the USSR and the socialist bloc in 1989-1991. One of the forms of indemnity for the alleged "defeat" of the USSR in the Cold War with the West was the surrender to the "winners" of the gigantic market of civil aircraft, estimated at that time at 40% of the world. As will become clear from further discussion, only on this "democratic" Russia, as the successor to the USSR, lost at least 1 trillion rubles in 20 years. dollars (!) or the total cost of oil exports for the same period. Therefore, to seriously approach the analysis of the world market of airliners with the participation of fragments of the mighty Soviet aviation industry, which today timidly knocks on the door either with unfinished late Soviet developments (Tu-204, Tu-334, An-148), or with gineriks of Western models (Sukhoi Superjet 100, MS-21), I just don't want to.
1. The main segments of the civil aircraft market
All civil aircraft produced in the world intended for the mass transportation of passengers are divided into the following segments depending on the type of fuselage and flight range:
1) medium and long-haul wide-body aircraft:
The fuselage diameter is 5 to 6 meters. An airplane with two aisles in the cabin. There are usually from 7 to 10 passenger seats in a row. For comparison, in narrow-body aircraft, the fuselage diameter is usually 3-4 meters. In the passenger compartment of a wide-body aircraft, the seats are arranged in 3-5 rows. On average, a wide-body aircraft can take on board 300-500 people.
The following wide-body aircraft are currently in operation (Table 1):
Table 1. Main wide-body aircraft in service.
| aircraft type | years of release | number of passengers | maximum range | total released |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A 300 | 1972-2007 | 270 | 7 000 | 561 |
| A 310 | 1982-1997 | 205-280 | 9 000 | 255 |
| IL-86 | 1980-1997 | 350 | 4 600 | 106 |
| MD-11 | 1988-2000 | 298-410 | 13 400 | 200 |
| B 747 | 1969-present | 366-524 | 14 800 | 1 419 |
| T 767 | 1982-present | 180-375 | 11 300 | 1 000 |
| A 340 | 1991-present | 261-475 | 16 700 | 374 |
| IL-96 | 1993-present | 300-436 | 12 000 | 29 |
| A 330 | 1994-present | 255-295 | 13 000 | 671 |
| In 777 | 1994-present | 301-451 | 17 500 | 901 |
| A 380 | 2007-present | 525-963 | 15 400 | 60 |
| B 787 | 2009-present | 210-350 | 16 300 | 7 |
| A 350 (project) | ---- | 270-412 | 15 700 | ----- |
2) medium and long-haul narrow-body aircraft:
Fuselage diameter up to 4 meters. Compared to wide-body aircraft, narrow-body aircraft take on board a much smaller number of passengers and, as a rule, have a shorter flight range. The maximum passenger capacity is 289 people.
Narrow-body aircraft in particular include (Table 2):
- The Airbus A320 is the most massive European passenger jet aircraft.
- The Boeing 737 is the world's largest commercial passenger jet.
- Il-62 is a narrow-body aircraft with the longest range.
- Tu-154 - the most massive Soviet passenger jet aircraft
Table 2. Main narrow-body aircraft in service.
| Aircraft type | Years of release | Passengers | Maximum range | Total issued |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caravelle | 1959-2005 | 104-130 | 1 800 | 285 |
| IL-62 | 1966-2010 | 186 | 11 000 | 277 |
| Tu-154 | 1968-2011 | 150-180 | 3 500 | 1 020 |
| Yak-42 (142) | 1977-2002 | 100-120 | 4 000 | 188 |
| MD-80 | 1980-1998 | 140-172 | 4 500 | 1 191 |
| B 757 | 1982-2004 | 200-280 | 7 200 | 1 050 |
| B 717 (MD95) | 1998-2006 | 98-106 | 3 800 | 156 |
| B 737 | 1968-new | 85-215 | 6 000 | 6 285 |
| A 320 (318/319) | 1987-present | 107-220 | 6 500 | 4 181 |
| Tu-204 | 1990-present | 164-212 | 7 500 | 66 |
| Tu-334 | 2000-nv | 102-138 | 4 100 | 5 (tested) |
| Embraer ERJ 195Х | 2006-present | 106-118 | 3 990 | n / a |
| Bombardier CSeries | plan 2013 | 100-150 | 5 500 | --- |
| MS-21 (project) | plan 2016 | 150-212 | 5 500 | --- |
| COMAC С919 (project) | plan 2014 | 168-190 | n / a | --- |
3) regional aircraft:
Regional aircraft include aircraft that are even smaller in size. They carry up to 100 passengers over distances of up to 2-3 thousand kilometers. These aircraft can be fitted with both turboprop and turbojet engines. Such aircraft include aircraft of the ERJ, CRJ, ATR, Dash-8 and SAAB families (Table 3).
Table 3. The main types of regional aircraft in service.
| Aircraft type | Years of release | Passengers | Maximum range | Total issued |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| An-24 | 1962-1979 | 48 | 1 000 | 1367 |
| Yak-40 | 1966-1981 | 27-36 | 1 300 | 1013 |
| BAe 146 / Avro RJ | 1987-2003 | 85-100 | 2 000 | 387 |
| Fokker 100 | 1986-1997 | 85-119 | 3 100 | 238 |
| An-28 (An-38) | 1969-present | 18-27 | 900 | 191 |
| Bombardier DHC-8 (series) | 1984-present | 37-78 | 2 500 | 844 for 2008 |
| ATR 42 | 1984-present | 40-50 | 1 500 | 390 |
| ATR 72 | 1989-present | 50-75 | 1 300 | 408 |
| Bombardier CRJ (series) | 1991-present | 50-100 | 3 800 | 533 |
| Embraer ERJ 145 (series) | 1999-present | 35-50 | 3 000 | 1000 for 2007 |
| An-140 | 1999 -in | 52 | 2 400 | 12 |
| IL-114 | 2001-present | 64 | 1 500 | 16 |
| Embraer E-Jet (series) | 2002-present | 78-100 | 4 600 | 660 |
| SukhoiSuperjet 100 | 2008-present | 68-98 (130) | 4 500 | 8 |
| An-148 (158) | 2009-present | 70-99 | 6 200 | 13 |
| ARJ21 (China) | 2008 | 70-100 | 3 700 | 1 (experience) |
| MitsubishiRegionalJet (project) | 2014 plan | 70-90 | 3 000 | --- |
| Tu-324 (414) project | no data | 52-76 | 3 500 | --- |
4) local planes:
The smallest class of passenger aircraft is local aircraftdesigned for the transportation of a small number of passengers (from 20) over distances of up to 1000 kilometers. They are most often equipped with turboprop or piston engines. The most common aircraft of this class are Cessna and Beechcraft.
For a better understanding, we present a comparative table 4, which includes all segments of civil aircraft.
Table 4. Segments of the passenger aircraft market and their projected capacity (in kind and value) for the period 2005-2024.
2. The main companies participating in the civil aircraft market
The passenger aircraft market has historically been dominated by American and European manufacturers. Boeing and Airbus are the largest civil aircraft manufacturers in the world.
Airbus S.A.S (pronounced Airbus) - one of the largest aircraft manufacturing companies, produces the same name passenger, cargo and military transport aircraft... The company is headquartered in Toulouse, France. In 2001, according to French law, it was merged into a joint stock company or "S.A.S." (French Société par Actions Simplifiée - a simplified joint stock company). The sole shareholder of Airbus is EADS. Airbus employs about 50 thousand people and is concentrated mainly in four European countries: France, Germany, Great Britain, Spain. Final assembly of products is carried out at the company's factories in the cities of Toulouse (France) and Hamburg (Germany).
Airbus' civil aircraft lineup began with the twin-engine A300. The shortened version of the A300 is known as the A310. Building on the lack of success of the A300, Airbus began developing the A320 project with an innovative fly-by-wire control system. The A320 was a great commercial success for the company. The A318 and A319 are shortened versions of the A320 which, with some modifications, are offered by Airbus for the corporate jet market (Airbus CorporateJet). The extended version of the A320 is known as the A321 and competes with the later Boeing 737s.
Inspired by the success of the A320 family, Airbus decided to develop a family of even larger aircraft. This is how the twin-engine A330 and the four-engine A340 appeared. One of the key features of the new aircraft is the new wing design, it has a greater relative thickness, which increases its design efficiency and internal fuel volumes. The Airbus A340-500 has a range of 16,700 kilometers, which is the second longest range for commercial jet aircraft after the Boeing 777-200LR (range 17,446 km).
The company is especially proud of its proprietary fly-by-wire technology, unified cockpit and on-board systems used in all in-house developed aircraft families; they make it much easier to train the crew and retrain to new models.
The latest development of the A350XWB company is designed to compete with the new Boeing model - 787.
The boeing company - one of the world's largest manufacturers of aviation, space and military equipment.
The headquarters is located in Chicago (Illinois, USA).
The main production facilities of the company are located in the cities: Everett (Washington state), California, St. Louis (Missouri).
The company produces a wide range of civil and military aviation equipment, being, along with Airbus, the largest aircraft manufacturer in the world. In addition, Boeing manufactures a wide range of military aerospace equipment (including helicopters) and conducts large-scale space programs (for example, the CST-100 spacecraft).
The company's factories are located in 67 countries of the world. The company supplies its products to 145 countries of the world. Boeing works with more than 5,200 suppliers in 100 countries.
In 2001, a division of Boeing International was formed, which controls the work of the company in 70 countries of the world, except for the US market, where it is responsible for the development and implementation of the company's global development strategy. It determines and evaluates the competitive advantages and opportunities in the host country for the development of intellectual resources and technologies, the development of partnerships and business.
3. Comparative characteristics of the release of Airbus and Boeing
The companies operate mainly in the segments of narrow-body and wide-body short- and medium-haul aircraft.
Below is a comparative characteristic of the production of certain aircraft models by year.
- ? B-737 and A320. Medium-sized aircraft for medium-haul airlines, each type has many modifications. IN last years A320s are sold in higher volumes than Boeing products.
Table 5. Deliveries of Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 aircraft for 1988-2010
| 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A320 | 401 | 402 | 386 | 367 | 339 | 289 | 233 | 232 | 236 | 257 | 241 |
| B-737 | 398 | 372 | 290 | 330 | 302 | 212 | 202 | 173 | 223 | 299 | 281 |
| 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | 1993 | 1992 | 1991 | 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A320 | 222 | 168 | 127 | 72 | 56 | 64 | 71 | 111 | 119 | 58 | 58 | 16 |
| B-737 | 320 | 281 | 135 | 76 | 89 | 121 | 152 | 218 | 215 | 174 | 146 | 165 |
- B-747 and A380. High capacity aircraft for medium to long haul airlines. Asian airlines, traditional users of the 747s, are the main customers of the A380. Currently, B-747s are produced in an amount of no more than 10 units per year, there are very few new orders for passenger cars (out of 99 ordered since the beginning of 2006, only 27 B-747s are passenger). At the same time, the portfolio of A380 orders since the beginning of 2006 has increased by 60 passenger liners.
- B-767 and A330. The Airbus aircraft has proved to be more commercially successful in recent years.
Table 6. Deliveries of Airbus A330 and Boeing 767 aircraft for 1994-2009
| 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A330 | 78 | 72 | 68 | 62 | 56 | 47 | 31 | 42 | 35 | 43 | 44 | 23 | 14 | 10 | 30 | 9 |
| B-767 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 40 | 44 | 44 | 47 | 42 | 43 | 37 | 41 |
- B-777 and A340. Both aircraft appeared at the same time, but due to the higher fuel efficiency of the B-777 and a number of other factors, the American company sold twice as many aircraft as their European competitors.
Table 7. Deliveries of Airbus A340 and Boeing 777 aircraft for 1993-2009
| 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | 1993 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B-777 | 88 | 61 | 75 | 65 | 40 | 36 | 39 | 47 | 61 | 55 | 83 | 74 | 59 | 32 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| A-340 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 24 | 24 | 28 | 33 | 16 | 22 | 19 | 20 | 24 | 33 | 28 | 19 | 25 | 22 |
There are very few new orders for the A340. It is assumed that the A350 will compete with the B-777, but the development of the latter is still very far from completion.
Embraer (Empresa Brasileirade Aeronautica) Is a Brazilian aircraft construction company, one of the leaders in the world market for regional passenger aircraft. Headquartered in Sao Jose dos Campos, state of Sao Paulo.
Founded in 1969 as a state-controlled company. In the 1990s, it faced a serious crisis, after which it was completely privatized in 1994 (the state had only a "golden share" left, which gives the opportunity to veto the supply of military aircraft).
The company specializes in regional airliners and produces commercial, corporate, military, agricultural aircraft. Manufacturing facilities are concentrated in Brazil.
By 2010, the company was tied for third or fourth place with Canadian Bombardier among the largest suppliers of commercial airliners, behind Boeing and Airbus. In 2009, the company delivered over 240 aircraft to commercial customers.
The number of personnel is 17 thousand people (2005).
Embraer jet - family of twin-engine narrow-body medium-range passenger aircraft manufactured by the Brazilian company Embraer. Includes 4 modifications: E-170, E-175, E-190 and E-195... The E-Jet was first introduced at the 1999 Le Bourget Air Show. Serial production began in 2002.
Table 8. Deliveries of Embraer E-jet 190, 195 aircraft in total for 2005-2010, pcs.
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 37 | 32 | 52 | 33 | 23 |
Bombardier Inc. (Bombardier), a Canadian engineering company. It is headquartered in Montreal, Quebec.
The company was founded in the city of Valcourt (Quebec) in 1942 under the name L´Auto-NeigeBombardierLimitée by Joseph-Armand Bombardier. The company has been engaged in aircraft manufacturing since the mid-1980s. In 2003, the company sold its Bombardier Recreational Products division, which was engaged in the production of snowmobiles, all-terrain vehicles, jet skis, motor boats, concentrating on railway and aircraft engineering.
The company is one of the world's largest manufacturers of business jets, regional aircraft, as well as railway equipment and trams. The main divisions of the company are the world's largest manufacturer of railway equipment Bombardier Transportation and Bombardier Aerospace - the third largest manufacturer of civil aircraft in the world after Boeing and Airbus. In 2008, Bombardier employed 59,800 people.
Bombardier Canadair RegionalJet (CRJ) is a family of regional passenger jet narrow-body aircraft. The plane made its first flight on May 10, 1991. CRJ-100 became the first aircraft of the modern level among 50-seater aircraft. In terms of speed, the aircraft can be compared with larger aircraft, while its efficiency is quite consistent with the class. The family consists of several modifications, differing in fuselage length and flight range: CRJ100, CRJ 200, CRJ 700, CRJ 900.
The CRJ 900 is designed to carry 88 passengers. The Bombardier CRJ 900 made its first flight on February 21, 2001. In addition to the standard one, there are several more versions of the aircraft - extended and for long-distance flights.
The Bombardier CRJ 1000 program was launched by Bombardier Aerospace on February 19, 2007. First flown in September 2008, the 100-seat CRJ1000 is the latest model in the Canadian Regional Jet family.
Table 9. Deliveries of Bombardier CRJ 900, 1000 aircraft for 2005-2010, pcs.
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 48 | 78 | 92 | 82 | 87 |
4. Forecasts of growth of the world market of civil aircraft
According to Airbus forecasts, in the next 20 years, airlines around the world will buy almost 25 thousand new long-haul aircraft for a total of 2.9 trillion. dollars. Of these, about 10 thousand will be required to replace the aging fleet, and another 15 thousand - to further increase the carrying capacity. Moreover, narrow-body airliners will be in the greatest demand. They will be sold about 18 thousand for 1.27 trillion. dollars, which will amount to 70% of the total volume of all deliveries in kind. As a result, by 2030 the global airline fleet will almost double and exceed 30,000 aircraft. High demand for new aircraft is driven by the growing need to replace low-fuel efficiency airliners, as well as the dynamic development of new markets and an increase in passenger traffic on existing routes.
Boeing predicts the market value for new civil aircraft over the next 20 years will amount to 3.6 trillion. The market growth will be accompanied by the recovery of the global economy after the crisis and an increase in demand for new and more efficient aircraft. According to the current 2011 market review, by 2029 the market capacity will be 30,900 new passenger and cargo aircraft.
Table 10. Future market value (in 2009 prices) and aircraft deliveries by region by 2029
| Region | Market value of supplies in billions of dollars | Aircraft deliveries, pcs. |
|---|---|---|
| Pacific Asia Region | 1 320 | 10 320 |
| North America | 700 | 7 200 |
| Europe | 800 | 7 190 |
| Near East | 390 | 2 340 |
| Latin America | 210 | 2 180 |
| CIS | 90 | 960 |
| Africa | 80 | 710 |
| Total | 3 590 | 30 900 |
The table shows that in the long term, the volume passenger transportation will increase by 5.3% per year under the influence of economic growth in regions with different patterns of demand for aircraft. Narrow-body aircraft will continue to be the fastest growing segment of the global market, thanks to the rapid increase in the number of low-cost airlines, the development of new markets such as India, China and Southeast Asiaand the continuing volatility of fuel prices. The growth rate of the narrow-body segment has outpaced the wide-body segment for the past ten years. This gap will continue to widen as older generation aircraft are removed from the airline fleet.
The highest growth rates are observed in the Asia-Pacific region, in which China is the undisputed leader.
Today, this region provides about 1/3 of the world's air traffic. As a result of the growth of this market, by 2029, the Asia-Pacific region will account for almost 43% of inbound, outbound and domestic traffic. China alone will need 4,300 new airliners over the next 20 years.
Local airlines will also be the most active buyers of wide-body aircraft, generating about 40% of total demand.
Another fast growing market is the Middle East, which has one of the highest air traffic growth rates in recent years. Middle East airlines have achieved rapid growth by taking advantage of their geographic location, the region's demographics, the acquisition of modern aircraft, and well-thought-out investment and business development plans. To the Middle East for the period 2011-2029 2340 aircraft will be delivered.
More detailed data on the distribution of deliveries of various types of airliners by major regions is provided in the following table.
Table 11. Deliveries of aircraft by region in accordance with the size for 2011-2029.
| Region | Regional (pcs.) | With one pass (pcs.) | With two passages (pcs.) | Large (pcs.) | Total (pcs.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacific Asia Region | 470 | 6 710 | 2 840 | 300 | 10 320 |
| North America | 800 | 5 180 | 1 180 | 40 | 7 200 |
| Europe | 310 | 5 380 | 1 340 | 160 | 7 190 |
| Near East | 70 | 1 100 | 1 000 | 170 | 2 340 |
| Latin America | 20 | 1 800 | 350 | 10 | 2 180 |
| CIS | 200 | 570 | 160 | 30 | 960 |
| Africa | 50 | 420 | 230 | 10 | 710 |
| Total | 1 920 | 21 160 | 7 100 | 720 | 30 900 |
5. Increased competition and the end of the duopoly
Now the total portfolio of firm orders of Airbus and Boeing for narrow-body aircraft is approaching 3 thousand units, which is only 16% of the forecast demand for these aircraft for a twenty-year period. Thus, the world market for long-haul aircraft has all the prerequisites for the emergence of at least one more major player, which under certain circumstances may well press the giants of the world aircraft industry. The duopoly is slowly coming to an end. Of all the aircraft manufacturers in the world, the Canadians were the first to challenge the Big Two - Airbus and Boeing. Five years ago, Bombardier decided to begin development of the C-Series narrow-body aircraft, designed to carry 110-130 passengers. Initially, the implementation of this project was hampered by the intransigence of aircraft engine manufacturers, who, according to some experts, under pressure from Airbus and Boeing, did not show any desire to create new engine modifications specifically for the new Bombardier aircraft. They motivated their decision by the narrowness of the sales market. But thanks to the efforts of the Canadian authorities and the position of Pratt & Whitney Canada, as well as the changed market situation, this problem was ultimately solved. With financial support from the province of Quebec, Pratt & Whitney nevertheless developed a new family of Pure Power engines. These are exactly the units that Irkut will use on its MS-21. But unlike the MC-21 program, the C-Series project has already passed more than half the way. In the middle of last year, Bombardier presented working drawings of the SC100 test aircraft, and the final design of the left side of the aircraft fuselage was shown at the Saint-Laurent plant in Montreal. Now at this enterprise, the assembly of composite panels on the tail section of the liner is already in full swing.
The new aircraft should take off in 2012, and the first deliveries of the airliner to airlines are scheduled for 2013. But, despite all the advantages of the new liners, Bombardier cannot boast of a large portfolio of orders for them: the Canadians have only 90 firm contracts for the purchase of SC100 and the same number of options. The main customers for these aircraft are the Lufthansa Group, the Irish leasing company LCI and the American Republic Holdings. But Bombardier is pinning its hopes on the Chinese market. The Canadian company expects it to become the second largest commercial aviation market over the next 20 years. To achieve this goal, the company decided to partner with Chinese aircraft industries.
China has its own project to create a long-range narrow-body aircraft - C919. And this project is nothing more than China's long-term plan to destroy the Airbus-Boeing duopoly. The name of the model and its numerical code for the Chinese have a great symbolic meaning. The first number “9” can be interpreted as “a long time that needs to be spent on overcoming a difficult route”, and “19” means that the first Chinese mainline aircraft will be able to carry 190 passengers. In addition to the basic version, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) began designing two more models - for 156 and 168 passengers.
Within a few months, COMAC expects to complete the overall technical design of the aircraft and select suppliers for all key systems. This process has been actively going on for the last year and a half.
COMAC plans that the first flight of the C919 should take place in 2014, and commercial operation of the airliner will begin in 2016. In total, the Chinese intend to produce 2,500 new aircraft within 20 years. However, COMAC has not yet paid firm orders for С919. But there is no doubt that they will appear in the near future.
The expansion of three new mainline aircraft manufacturers into the market at once forced Airbus and Boeing to begin full-scale preparations to repel the attack. Airbus has decided to launch a re-engining program for the A320 family airliners, which, after being equipped with new engines, will be named NEO. The European concern intends to invest about 1 billion euros in this project. The new aircraft will be equipped with all the same engines of the LEAP-X and PurePower families. Moreover, Airbus intends to equip its modernized airliners with new wingtips, which will further reduce fuel consumption by 3-4%. Thus, the total fuel savings will be about 18%. The design of the A320 NEO airframe is 95% similar to the aircraft of this family currently in operation. The European concern only has to strengthen the wing and pylons. The re-engineered aircraft will hit the market in 2016 and will cost only $ 6 million more than their predecessors. In total, Airbus intends to sell about 4 thousand A320 NEOs. And it is possible that sooner or later this plan will be fulfilled. Within a month and a half of sales, Airbus has already acquired three large customers. The starting customer of the A320 NEO was Virgin America, which signed a contract for the purchase of 30 aircraft. India's IndiGo and Malaysia's AirAsia soon followed suit, signing preliminary agreements to acquire more than 200 new aircraft. This led to the fact that the shares of EADS (parent company Airbus) for the day rose in price by 5%. The company's management is confident that the residual value of the existing A320 models will not be affected much, but the newly-made competitors of the European concern will have a hard time.
Boeing saw the launch of the NEO project as a belated response to its Next Generation aircraft, which have been in production for over a decade. At the same time, Boeing intends to create a new aircraft family in the near future to replace the existing versions of the Boeing 737 NG. The company understands the expectations of Airbus from the release of the new NEO model, but does not see the need for such airliners, the company's strategy, in accordance with the expectations of its customers, is aimed at designing a new aircraft.
Brazilian Embraer is also considering the possibility of creating a new mainline aircraft for 110-130 passengers. The company is waiting for Boeing to make the final decision on the release of its new liner, and even then it will think whether it is worth it to engage in a competing project.
***
The modern aviation industry is a global network of thousands of specialized suppliers of various components and manufacturing services located around the world, incl. and in Russia.
The stage of stabilization is inherent in the current state of the aviation industry market. It is characterized by an established mature market for the products of the relevant industry. This means that the aviation industry market is segmented:
- medium and long-haul wide-body aircraft;
- medium and long-haul narrow-body aircraft;
- regional aircraft;
- local planes.
An important feature of the state of the civil aircraft market today is the continuous increase in the role of innovation in achieving success: changing the situation in the external environment requires a revision of the role and place of innovation in the activities of companies. Analysis of the development trend of the world market in the XX century, revealed main feature: the development of the market is a continuous increase in volatility, instability and unpredictability.
The basis of the development strategies of the world's leading manufacturers of civil aircraft is the constant technological improvement of their products and the reduction of the operating costs of the proposed aircraft models, including fuel consumption and repair costs and maintenanceas well as developing deep and long-term relationships with airlines by providing them with comprehensive support in the operation, modernization and renewal of the aircraft fleet. At the current stage, the range of products manufactured by Boeing and Airbus, as well as Embraer and Bombardier, is largely similar when compared in terms of characteristics such as size, range and cost of the aircraft.
10
10th place - Pakistan
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersThe Royal Pakistani Air Force was formed in 1947. The Pakistani Air Force actively participated in the wars with India, and during the Afghan war intercepted Soviet and Afghan aircraft that invaded air space countries. Pakistan buys aircraft of mainly American and Chinese production. The Air Force has 65,000 soldiers and officers (including 3,000 pilots). The state has about 955 combat, transport and training aircraft.
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9th place - Turkey
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersThe Turkish Air Force was founded in 1911. By 1940, Turkey had the largest air force in the Middle East and the Balkan Peninsula. The Turkish Air Force participated in the invasion of Cyprus (1974) and military operations in the Balkans in the 1990s, and is also periodically involved in military operations within the country. The number of personnel is about 60,000 people. The development of its own fifth-generation fighter TF-X is underway.
8
8th place - Egypt
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersThe Egyptian Air Force was created on November 2, 1930 by the decree of King Fuad I. Egyptian aviation took an active part in the Arab-Israeli wars. In the 1950-1970s, the armament consisted mainly of Soviet-made aircraft. After the severance of relations with the USSR, Egypt began to buy aircraft from the USA and France. The number of troops is about 40 thousand people.
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7th place - France
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersCreated as part of the French army in 1910. The French Air Force was actively involved in the First and Second World Wars. After the German occupation of the country in 1940, the national air force split into the Vichy Air Force and the Free French Air Force. The main manufacturer of aviation equipment is Dassault Aviation. She is engaged not only in the creation of military types of aircraft, but also regional and business class. The second largest company Airbus S.A.S produces cargo, military transport and passenger vehicles.
6
6th place - South Korea
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersThe main armaments are American-made aircraft and helicopters, but the South Korean government is making significant efforts to organize the production of its military equipment and reduce dependence on the United States in military-economic terms. There is also a certain amount of Russian, British, Spanish and Indonesian aircraft in service. In terms of the number of aviation equipment and the number of personnel, the South Korean Air Force is more than twice inferior to the North, but it is armed with more modern technology, and the average flight time of pilots is higher. Since 1997, female cadets have been enrolled in the Air Force Academy. The number of the composition is about 65 thousand people.
5
5th place - Japan
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersAir force self-defense Japan established in 1954. Until the end of World War II, aviation was directly subordinate to the imperial army and navy of Japan. It was not singled out as a separate type of troops. After the Second World War, during the formation of the new armed forces, the Japanese Air Self-Defense Forces were formed, which were armed with aircraft manufactured by the United States. After the United States refused to sell the fifth generation F-22 fighter to Japan in 2007, the Japanese government decided to build the Mitsubishi ATD-X, its own fifth generation aircraft. On this moment the number of personnel is 47 123 people.
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4th place - India
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersThe Indian Air Force was formed on October 8, 1932, and the first squadron appeared on April 1, 1933. They played an important role in the fighting on the Burmese front during World War II. In 1945-1950, the Indian Air Force wore the prefix "royal". Indian aviation took an active part in the wars with Pakistan, as well as in a number of smaller operations and conflicts. For 2017, the number of personnel is 127,000 people.
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3rd place - China
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersThe PLA Air Force was established on November 11, 1949, following the victory of the Chinese Communist Party in the Civil War. The Soviet Union played an important role in their creation and armament. Since the mid-1950s, the production of Soviet aircraft began at Chinese factories. The Great Leap Forward, the severance of relations with the USSR and the Cultural Revolution caused serious damage to the Chinese Air Force. Despite this, development of its own combat aircraft began in the 1960s. After the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the USSR, China began to modernize its Air Force, purchasing multifunctional Su-30 fighters from Russia and mastering the licensed production of Su-27 fighters. Later, China broke the contract for the supply of Russian fighters and began to produce its own aircraft based on the acquired know-how. The number of personnel is 330,000 people.
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2nd place - Russia
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersSince 1998, they have been a new type of the Russian Armed Forces, formed as a result of the unification of the Air Force (Air Force) and the Air Defense Forces (Air Defense). The basis of the combat strength of the Air Force is made up of aviation bases and brigades of aerospace defense forces. During the war, 44,093 pilots were trained. Killed in battles 27,600: 11,874 fighter pilots, 7,837 attack pilots, 6,613 crew members of bombers, 587 reconnaissance pilots and 689 auxiliary pilots. After the collapse of the USSR in December 1991, the USSR Air Force was divided between Russia and other former Soviet republics. As a result of this division, Russia received approximately 40% of the equipment and 65% of the personnel of the Soviet Air Force, becoming the only state in the post-Soviet space with long-range strategic aviation. Many planes were transferred from the former Soviet republics to Russia. Some were destroyed. In particular, 11 new Tu-160 bombers located in Ukraine were disposed of in cooperation with the United States.
In January 2008, Air Force Commander-in-Chief A. N. Zelin called the state of Russia's aerospace defense critical. In 2009, purchases of new aircraft for the Russian Air Force approached the level of purchases of aircraft of the Soviet era. The PAK FA fifth-generation fighter is being tested; on January 29, 2010, its first flight took place. The 5th generation fighters are planned to enter the troops in 2020. The number of personnel is 148 thousand people.
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1st place - USA
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersBy the number of personnel and quantity aircraft are the largest air forces in the world. The United States Air Force was formed in its current form on September 18, 1947, shortly after the end of World War II. Up to this point, they were in the US Army. The number of personnel is 329,638 people.
The US Air Force provides high mobility to the US military. In this component, no army in the world comes close to the United States. The Air Force is a special type of force for the United States, which includes two components of the strategic triad at once: intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and strategic aviation. It is the US Air Force that is a kind of pole of attraction for most of the innovations that Americans are actively using in the military industry.
- Boeing's 20-year forecast reflects a 3.5 percent increase in aircraft demand over 2014
- Narrow-body and small / medium wide-body aircraft markets are the growth leaders in the number and total cost of aircraft
Boeing projects the need for 38,050 new aircraft over the next 20 years, up 3.5 percent from last year's forecast. The company today released its Current Market Outlook, estimating the total cost of new aircraft needed at $ 5.6 trillion.
“The commercial aircraft market remains robust and robust,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. In the future, we expect further market growth and steady demand for new aircraft. ”
By the end of the forecast period, the commercial aircraft fleet will double, from 21,600 units in 2014 to 43,560 in 2034. The growth will come from 58 percent of the 38,050 aircraft delivered during the specified period. Passenger traffic growth will continue at about 4.9 percent annually, almost reaching the historical trend of 5 percent. Over 7 billion passengers will be transported by the end of the forecast period. Air cargo traffic will grow by about 4.7 percent annually.
The narrow-body aircraft market continues to lead in terms of growth and, as the largest segment, will require 26,730 aircraft over the next two decades. These aircraft form the backbone of the world's airline fleet, carrying up to 75 percent of passengers on more than 70 percent of civil aviation routes. The growth in this segment is driven by the growth of low-cost airlines and traditional airlines in emerging markets.
“The Boeing 737-800 and the upcoming 737 MAX 8 are at the heart of the narrow-body aircraft segment,” said Tinset. "These aircraft provide customers with the highest fuel efficiency, departures and class performance."
About 35 percent of narrow-body vessels will be operated by low-cost airlines, Tinset added: “Low-cost airlines will need aircraft that combine maximum profitability with the highest profit potential. With a 20 percent reduction in fuel consumption, the 737 MAX 200 is the ideal aircraft for them. ”
Boeing predicts that the wide-body segment of the market will require 8,830 new aircraft. First of all, small wide-body vessels with a passenger capacity of 200 to 300 seats, such as 787-8 and 787-9 Dreamliner, will be in demand. This year's outlook continues to reflect a shift in demand away from very large aircraft towards fuel efficient new twin-engine aircraft such as the 787 and the new 777X.
While most of the demand for new aircraft is still driven by the growth of airlines, a large and growing number of aging aircraft will require replacement. Annually, 2 to 3 percent of the fleet in operation will need to be updated.
“The 737 MAX, 777 and 787 are in an ideal position to take advantage of this wave of replacements,” notes Tinset.
The cargo market continues to strengthen and will require around 920 new aircraft over the 20 years that the forecast covers.
“We have seen steady growth in the air freight market over the past two years, and we expect this market to continue to grow,” said Tinset. "This is great news for our cargo aircraft business, including the 767, 777 and 747-8."
Boeing's annual market forecasts have the longest history and provide the most comprehensive analysis of the aviation industry. The full report is available at www.boeing.com/cmo.
New aircraft deliveries: 2015-2034
| Aircraft type | Passenger capacity | Total deliveries | The cost |
| Regional | Up to 90 | 2 490 | $ 100 billion |
| Narrow-body | 90 – 230 | 26 730 | $ 2770 billion |
| Small wide-body | 200 – 300 | 4 770 | $ 1,250 billion |
| Medium wide-body | 300 – 400 | 3 520 | $ 1,220 billion |
| Large wide-body | From 400 | 540 | $ 230 billion |
| Total | ——— | 38 050 | $5,6 trillion |
Over the next two decades, the Asian market, including China, will lead in terms of total shipments.
American concern Boeing has raised its forecast for the growth of the market for new passenger aircraft. The company released its annual Current Market Outlook in London on Thursday, estimating the total cost of new aircraft required at $ 5.2 trillion. The concern forecasts demand for 36,770 new aircraft in the next 20 years. In the previous forecast, it was about 35 thousand aircraft worth $ 4.8 trillion.
“This is a strong and stable market,” said Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president of marketing. “With new, more fuel-efficient aircraft entering service, the growth of air travel is being driven by customers who want to be able to fly wherever they want, at any time.
Demand has been boosted this year by the single-aisle market, which is forecast to become the fastest growing and most dynamic segment through further entry into the low-cost airline market. This segment will require 25,680 new aircraft worth $ 2.56 trillion, accounting for 70% of the projected demand.
“Given the staggering forecasts for orders and deliveries, we see 160 passenger capacity as the backbone of the narrow-body market,” Tinset said. - This market is undoubtedly gravitating towards this dimension, which allows us to combine operational efficiency with the flexibility of the route network. The Next-Generation 737-800 and the new 737 MAX 8 offer our customers the highest revenue potential in this category. ”
Boeing's main competitor, the European aircraft concern Airbus, is also betting on the narrow-body market. Sales of the flagship A321 in the narrow-body aircraft segment grew by 20% and now account for about half of the group's total narrow-body aircraft.
Demand for other types of aircraft will also increase. The forecast for sales in the segment of regional liners increased by 25%, to $ 100 billion, or 2,490 units. In 2013, the company forecasted $ 80 billion in regional shipments, or 2020 units.
Sales will also increase in the small wide-body and medium wide-body aircraft segments. At the same time, the number of orders in the segment of small wide-body aircraft, despite the growth in market volume, will decrease from 4530 to 4520 units.
Unlike the small and medium wide-body aircraft segment, the market for large wide-body aircraft with seating capacity of more than 400 seats will shrink, Boeing analysts predict. The concern expects a reduction in sales from $ 280 billion to $ 240 billion, and the total number of aircraft sold will decrease from 760 to 620 units. According to Boeing estimates, the capacity of an average wide-body liner with two aisles will increase by 20 seats in the next 20 years, and that of a narrow-body airliner by 10. Airplanes will become longer, aisles narrower, and the distance between seats will decrease.
Over the next two decades, the market for new aircraft will gradually become more geographically balanced. At the same time, the Asia-Pacific region will become the main driver for market growth.
In the next 20 years, the APR market, including China, will lead in the total number of aircraft supplied to the region. According to Boeing analysts, in 2033 the total size of the Asia-Pacific fleet will grow from the current 5470 to 15,220 aircraft. The CIS market will also noticeably grow. In the next 20 years, the number of aircraft operated in the CIS will grow from 1180 to 1820 units.
The nearest plans of the American aviation concern are the presentation of a new generation of medium wide-body Boeing-787-9, which is 7 meters longer than the current top model Dreamliner 787-8 and can accommodate 40 more passengers. The aircraft should be unveiled to the general public for the first time early next week at the Farnborough Air Show. Boeing's main competitor, Airbus, will also unveil a new long-haul A350 aircraft, scheduled to begin deliveries by the end of 2014.
00:21 - REGNUM Revival of the military aviation industry
2014 was a record year for the Russian Air Force - the pilots received 108 different aircraft at their disposal. In 2015, the pace of deliveries should remain at approximately the same level or slightly increase. In total, taking into account exports, at least 124 military aircraft were built. The number of helicopters produced is growing more slowly, in 2013 and 2014 about 300 helicopters were produced. As for civil aircraft construction, the results are much more modest - 43 aircraft were produced, of which 38 aircraft were delivered to customers, and the rest will be delivered in 2015.
Is it a lot or a little? For this, it is necessary to dwell in more detail on each category of aviation products.
Military aircraft construction
In 2014, the Russian Air Force received 24 Su-35S multifunctional fighters, 21 Su-30SM multifunctional fighters, 8 Su-30M2 fighters, 18 Su-34 front-line bombers, 10 MiG-29K / KUB carrier-based fighters, 20 Yak-130 combat training aircraft , Tu-214ON observation aircraft, four An-148-100E passenger aircraft, two An-140-100 cargo-passenger aircraft. All of these aircraft meet modern requirements, many of them (especially the Su-30) have a huge success abroad. As already mentioned, the total number of military aircraft produced was at least 124 (the number of machines delivered abroad could not be accurately determined, so the number may be more - up to 150). Compare this figure with the number of combat aircraft produced in the 80s of the USSR, when the aviation industry was really strong. From 1983 to 1990, an average of 175 aircraft were produced each year, of which 110 were military. That is, the result achieved in 2014 fully corresponds to the Soviet production rates, and this despite the fact that each new model an airplane (especially a military one) is much more expensive than the previous one and takes more time to build.
And one more interesting point - today the Russian Federation began to occupy the first place in the world in the production of combat aircraft, overtaking both China (using Russian engines on its aircraft) and the United States (no more than 100 aircraft in 2014). The United States is failing the development of the 5th generation F-35 fighter, which is not going as smoothly as it would like. According to preliminary information, over the next 5 years, the United States will release 569 aircraft - 113 per year, along with export vehicles.
As for the prospects of the Russian Federation, in two years time the 5th generation PAK FA fighters will go into serial production. Within the framework of the State Armament Program for 2011-2020, the rate of aircraft production should remain at approximately the same level as in 2014. Work has begun on the creation of a promising strategic bomber PAK DA and a military transport aircraft PAK TA.
Another important area of \u200b\u200bdevelopment for the Air Force is the modernization of the existing fleet. Already in 2015, 5 modernized strategic bombers Tu-160 and 9 Tu-22M3M will be received. These aircraft can now carry high-precision non-nuclear cruise and anti-ship missiles. By 2020, the RF Air Force should have at least 700 modernized aircraft (while maintaining the current pace).
Civil aircraft construction
Here things are not so rosy. The main domestic passenger aircraft is the short-haul Sukhoi Superjet 100. It was produced in the amount of 34 pieces. With a stretch, transport aircraft purchased by law enforcement agencies can also be attributed to civil aviation - another 9 An-148, An-140, Il-76 and Tu-214. A total of 43 cars. In the 80s, 60-70 civil aircraft were produced in the USSR every year. But then there was the release of wide-body aircraft, the same Il-86/96. Now the lineup is limited to only one single SSJ-100, the prospects of which on the market are not yet entirely clear. The MS-21, a medium-range aircraft from the UAC, is under development. There was information about the possible development of a joint project with China for a wide-body aircraft. In any case, we are still very far from Europeans and Americans - the world market is still almost completely divided between two giants - Airbus and Boeing. In 2013, the first delivered 626 aircraft, and the second 648. The annual production of our UAC aircraft is only 6.8% of the Airbus output.
Helicopters
Let's get back to the positive again. In 2014, the Russian Helicopters holding produced just over 300 aircraft, of which more than 100 were under the State Defense Order. In the USSR of the 80s, the production of helicopters was about 380 pieces per year - the figure is higher, but not dramatically, especially considering the decrease in the country itself and the production of more expensive and modern machines. In addition, there is a production of a certain number of rotary-wing aircraft outside the "Russian Helicopters" - up to 50 more helicopters a year. Russian Helicopters account for 14% of world sales. Particularly popular is the line of the legendary Mi-8/17, which even the Pentagon is still purchasing for the Afghan army. The production of Ka-52, Mi-28 and Mi-35 assault helicopters is more than 70 units per year - the first place in the world.
conclusions
1. We are witnessing a revival of the Russian military aviation industry. Not only have the Soviet production rates been achieved, but even the United States has been left behind.
2. The civil aircraft industry, although it began to revive (a few years ago there was no production and 20 aircraft per year), it is still negligible on a global scale. The lineup is extremely scarce and does not meet the needs of the Russian Federation. The main development prospect is cooperation with the PRC, which will make it possible to obtain a huge Asian market.
3. Success in helicopter engineering is very good. It should be noted that even in the worst years, the production of helicopters rarely fell below 100 pieces per year. The Mi-8/17 line has always been popular abroad.
