Russian aircraft and helicopter manufacturers face new challenges today. They will have to more actively integrate into the global market, quickly introduce new technologies and, if necessary, exchange qualified personnel.
These and other steps are contained in the draft updated Aviation Industry Strategy 2030. In addition, the document includes the gradual privatization of some state-owned companies. "We are in favor of actively attracting private capital to the industry," explained Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov.
Benefits are not canceled
For industry participants, the existing measures of state support will remain and even expand. "We will encourage our airlines to acquire a fleet of aircraft Russian production ", - said Denis Manturov.
According to him, a new generation of suppliers should appear, working according to the strictest standards, in demand not only in the domestic but also in the global market. "The corporations of the aviation industry are already working in this direction," the minister said.
As before, the state relies on aviation science and ensuring the country's technological sovereignty. “As a result, we expect to build an economically stable, globally competitive industry, built into the international division of labor,” concluded Manturov.
The supplier is small but smart
A new generation of suppliers, including small and medium-sized businesses, will work not only for the aviation industry, but also for related industries - automotive, space, shipbuilding, transport engineering and others.
Today, all of the largest aircraft and helicopter manufacturers in the world work with many parts manufacturers, both large and small, focusing on the best product development, build quality and flawless after-sales service.
In Russia, the outdated industrial model of "full cycle" enterprises is still used - from casting to assembly of final products. There are almost no such enterprises left in the modern world - it is unprofitable.
The world welcomes wide cooperation and division of labor, the authors of the document state. According to the executive director of the Aviaport agency Oleg Panteleev, the strategy directly points to the key features of the "home aircraft building" and suggests ways to solve them in line with the trends of the global aviation industry. This means that the emphasis should be placed on the independent development of the so-called critical technologies that ensure competitiveness, on inclusion in international cooperation and the division of labor.
Digital factory
The most acute problem for Russian aircraft manufacturers is the tight domestic market and the closed nature of many foreign markets.
The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) plans to produce about 35 SSJ100s a year in the near future. Opportunities allow doubling production and ensuring profitability of production due to the scale of the business. and they do not fly as often as Europeans or Americans, "Oleg Panteleev explained to Rossiyskaya Gazeta. That is why it is extremely important for Russian aircraft manufacturers to gain access to the international market.
"A breakthrough to Asian markets can ensure the implementation of a joint Russian-Chinese project of a wide-body long-range aircraft (SHFDMS)," Oleg Panteleev believes.
The development of the export of military aircraft will be facilitated by the successful combat use of strike aircraft in Syria.
“It is important to understand what will be in demand in other countries. We rely on new aircraft models. These are SSJ100, MC21, Ka62, Mi38, Ansat,” the ministry explains.
Let us remind you that SSJ100 is a regional passenger aircraft created in close international cooperation, Ansat is a modern helicopter for widespread use in civil and special purposes. Ka62 and Mi38 are multipurpose helicopters, MC21 is a short-medium-haul aircraft.
More than 250 industrial enterprises and over 400 thousand employees are currently operating in the aviation industry.
The updated Aviation Industry Strategy focuses on enhanced scientific and technical development of the industry. Despite the implementation of promising projects in recent years, Russia has accumulated a lag behind the industry leaders, especially in the civilian segment. Many key technologies in the Russian aviation industry were developed back in the 1980s. And now in the global market, the requirements for the future aircraft associated with digital technology and innovation.
For example, Airbus is introducing a digital factory, an innovation that will increase productivity, reduce logistics and energy costs by 30%. Boeing and Airbus are beginning to use 3D printing, which increases product durability by five times and cuts raw material costs by 90 percent. The development of after-sales service is also important: with the help of new developments, the speed of service provision is increasing in the world.
The projects that will turn the tide may be MC21 and the Russian-Chinese plane SHFDMS, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is counting on.
Let's join the alliance
What methods of integration into the global aviation industry are offered? In addition to export measures of state support, this is close cooperation with countries developing their own aviation industry.
"For example, China does not have sufficient experience in the design of civilian wide-body aircraft and aircraft engines. India does not have its own developments in the fifth generation fighter, civil regional, narrow- and wide-body aircraft. The Russian aviation industry has competencies and technologies in these areas and can be a reliable partner for these countries, "the Ministry of Industry and Trade explains.
In addition, international alliances are planning to build according to the "competence in exchange for the market" scheme (for example, with China and India). Moreover, the possibility of creating joint ventures with developing countries for the development, production and promotion of aircraft is being considered.
In projects with international participation with high-tech countries, Russia is aimed at cooperation with France, Germany, USA, Great Britain, and Japan. "The creation of conditions for international cooperation will be achieved through political support from the state, in particular, at the level of intergovernmental agreements," the Strategy says.
When purchasing foreign aircraft, the industry participants, together with the state, will look for opportunities to meet the requirements for potential partners - to include domestic companies in international supply chains, to localize the production of components in Russia, and to conduct joint research and development work.
A separate topic is support for the domestic market for civil aircraft. When asked by RG what incentives could the airlines rely on when renewing their fleets with domestic civilian airliners SSJ100 and MC21, they said that they would create special conditions under which Russian aircraft would be competitive in operation.
The problem of the accessibility of remote regions of Russia without a well-equipped airfield infrastructure will be solved, among other things, with the help of aircraft manufactured according to the models of military transport aviation. Given the low serial production of such aircraft, the state will partially share the costs with air carriers for their operation.
Personnel turnover
Another of the strategic tasks is to create conditions for scientific centers acted as independent experts in the assessment of design solutions and certification.
For the first time an institute of general designers of corporations will appear in Russia. It is created to coordinate all activities in the field of creation military equipment, as well as for the cooperation of various design bureaus. The main goal is to push the "flow of technology" from the military to the civilian sphere and back. In general, to exclude duplication of design developments.
The strategy refers to the term "staff transfer". He will be able to move within the industry depending on the workload of the enterprise, the availability of vacancies and ambitions for his own career growth of employees, the ministry explained.
"There are a lot of qualified workers, but they are distributed pointwise and are inactive in comparison with other countries. For the aviation industry and related industries, it is important that people are ready to move for interesting and highly paid jobs to factories that experience a shortage of personnel, are ready to acquire new knowledge, share those the best practices that have already helped to restore the industrial complex of a particular region, "the department said.
The ministry is also considering a migration option in case of the closure of unprofitable enterprises in single-industry towns. In addition to professional development and retraining of personnel, the programs also provide for assistance in solving housing issues.
At the same time, market experts note that the Strategy covers too long a period - until 2030. The dynamics of the global development of the industry is such that the strategy will have to be updated much earlier.
Everything in private
The new industry strategy includes the gradual privatization of some state-owned companies. The aviation industry is now largely dependent on government subsidies. The lack of extra-budgetary funding sources did not allow the Aviation Industry Strategy-2015 to be fully implemented. Therefore, in the future, the stake is on additional private capital and the privatization of state-owned companies.
2.6 trillion rubles will be the total revenue of the aviation industry by 2030, if the objectives of the Strategy are met
"The world has different approaches to managing the industry. The largest American and Canadian aircraft companies are ruled by private capital, in Europe the state is a shareholder. Russia can choose an intermediate flexible scheme," Oleg Panteleev approves of the privatization turn.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade clarifies that privatization is one of the possible steps to change the industrial model. The so-called non-core spheres for aircraft and helicopter manufacturers are going to be privatized, which may account for up to 60 percent of all labor costs and investments.
Infographics: "RG" / Anton Perepletchikov / Elena Berezina
- Boeing's 20-year forecast reflects a 3.5 percent increase in aircraft demand over 2014
- Narrow-body and small / medium wide-body aircraft markets are the growth leaders in terms of number and total cost of aircraft
Boeing projects the need for 38,050 new aircraft over the next 20 years, up 3.5 percent from last year's forecast. The company today released its Current Market Outlook, estimating the total cost of new aircraft needed at $ 5.6 trillion.
“The commercial aircraft market remains robust and robust,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. In the future, we expect further market growth and steady demand for new aircraft. ”
By the end of the forecast period, the commercial aircraft fleet will double, from 21,600 units in 2014 to 43,560 in 2034. The growth will come from 58 percent of 38,050 aircraft delivered during the specified period. Passenger traffic growth will continue at about 4.9 percent annually, almost reaching the historical trend of 5 percent. Over 7 billion passengers will be transported by the end of the forecast period. Air cargo traffic will grow by about 4.7 percent annually.
The narrow-body aircraft market continues to lead in terms of growth and, as the largest segment, will require 26,730 aircraft over the next two decades. These aircraft form the backbone of the world's airline fleet, carrying up to 75 percent of passengers on more than 70 percent of routes. civil aviation... The growth in this segment is driven by the growth of low-cost airlines and traditional airlines in emerging markets.
“The Boeing 737-800 and the upcoming 737 MAX 8 are at the center of the narrow-body aircraft segment,” said Tinset. "These aircraft provide customers with the highest fuel efficiency, departures and class performance."
Around 35 percent of narrow-body vessels will be operated by low-cost airlines, Tinset added: “Low-cost airlines will need aircraft that combine maximum profitability with the highest profit potential. With a 20 percent reduction in fuel consumption, the 737 MAX 200 is the ideal aircraft for them. ”
Boeing predicts that the wide-body segment of the market will require 8,830 new aircraft. First of all, small wide-body vessels with a passenger capacity of 200 to 300 seats, such as 787-8 and 787-9 Dreamliner, will be in demand. This year's outlook continues to reflect a shift in demand away from very large aircraft towards fuel efficient new twin-engine aircraft such as the 787 and the new 777X.
While most of the demand for new aircraft is still driven by the growth of airlines, a large and growing number of aging aircraft will require replacement. Annually, 2 to 3 percent of the fleet in operation will need to be updated.
“The 737 MAX, 777 and 787 are in an ideal position to take advantage of this wave of substitutions,” notes Tinset.
The cargo market continues to strengthen and will require around 920 new aircraft over the 20 years that the forecast covers.
“We have seen steady growth in the air freight market over the past two years, and we expect this market to continue to grow,” said Tinset. "This is great news for our cargo aircraft production, including the 767, 777 and 747-8."
Boeing's annual market forecasts have the longest history and provide the most comprehensive analysis of the aviation industry. The full report is available at www.boeing.com/cmo.
New aircraft deliveries: 2015-2034
| Aircraft type | Passenger capacity | Total supplies | The cost |
| Regional | Up to 90 | 2 490 | $ 100 billion |
| Narrow-body | 90 – 230 | 26 730 | $ 2770 billion |
| Small wide-body | 200 – 300 | 4 770 | $ 1,250 billion |
| Medium wide-body | 300 – 400 | 3 520 | $ 1,220 billion |
| Large wide-body | From 400 | 540 | $ 230 billion |
| Total | ——— | 38 050 | $5,6 trillion |
In the next two decades, the Asian market, including China, will lead in terms of total shipments.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, an American-European duopoly developed in the production of long-haul passenger airliners (that is, aircraft with a capacity of 150 people and a maximum flight range of more than 4000-5000 km): the market was divided by Boeing and Airbus (Russia produces aircraft of the same size - Tu -204 and Il-96, but their production is single for state needs). The same concentration took place in the production of regional jet airliners (with a capacity of up to 100 people and a maximum flight range of less than 4,000 km): by the beginning of the 2000s, there were two companies that produce such aircraft in truly serial production - the Canadian Bombardier and the Brazilian Embraer (in Russia and in Ukraine there is, or rather, the small-scale production of an aircraft of this class An-148). It was in the regional segment that the countries that wanted to join a narrow circle of manufacturers of jet passenger aircraft first appeared: Russia with the Sukhoi Superjet project, China with the ARJ-21 aircraft and Japan with the Mitsubishi Regional Jet aircraft. But the market for long-haul aircraft is much more capacious and profitable, and at the turn of the 2010s. three more players announced projects in this segment (analogues of Boeing 737 and A319 / 320/321): Russia with the MC-21 project of the Irkut corporation, China with the C919 aircraft from COMAC and the Canadian Bombardier, whose new CSeries airliner is approaching in terms of passenger capacity " bottom "to the shortest versions of the Boeing 737 and to the European A319.
Giants Predictions
Aircraft corporations regularly publish 20-year forecasts for the passenger aircraft and transportation markets - few industries present the same long-term forecasts to the public. At the same time, the demand for specific models is not indicated - the breakdown is by class of airliners. Forecasts are made on the basis of thorough and many years of marketing and economic research, but, of course, they cannot foresee such events, which at one time hit the market hard, such as the terrorist attacks in the USA on September 11, 2001 or the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. As follows from the latter (published in autumn 2014) boeing forecast, by 2033, 36,770 mainline airliners will be produced, and their global fleet will increase from 20,910 aircraft in 2013 to 42,180 in 2033. The cost of aircraft to be produced by 2033 will amount to a staggering $ 5.2 trillion (almost a third of the US GDP or approximately three of Russia's GDP in 2014). Of the 25,680 aircraft produced in the forecasted twenty years, that is, almost 70%, in the Boeing classification, will be “long-haul aircraft with one aisle” (Boeing 737, A320, MS-21 and C919), and in value terms, their share will about 48%. Regional aircraft, to which Boeing includes the Sukhoi Superjet, will be produced 2,490 units, but their monetary share will be less than 2%, or about $ 100 billion. At the same time, the market capacity of Russia and the CIS countries, which are allocated by the American corporation into a separate regional market along with the Northern America, Latin America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East and Africa, by 2033, will amount to 1,330 aircraft worth $ 150 billion (or 3% of the total world market). The former USSR will need 990 aircraft of the MS-21 type, and 160 regional airliners.
Why "Tu" and "Il" disappeared
In the best years, the Soviet aviation industry produced up to 150 passenger jet aircraft a year. In 1991, last year the existence of the USSR, 37 Tu-154s, six Il-86s, one Il-96, two Tu-204s and 13 Yak-42s were produced, i.e., a total of 59 jet airliners, while EADS (now Airbus) produced about 170, and Boeing has about 600 passenger aircraft. Throughout the 90s. in the West, there were processes of consolidation of the aircraft industry (as a result of which only Boeing remained in the United States instead of three aircraft manufacturers), while all Soviet design bureaus and factories were privatized (or separated into state enterprises) separately. After the collapse of the USSR, the civil aircraft industry in Russia found itself in a state of collapse, which was caused by a combination of many factors: the most severe economic crisis, under-implementation of new projects, lack of modern maintenance and financial support for aircraft sales, resulting from the collapse of air transportation, a large surplus fleet of virtually free for airlines machines. Starting in 2001, the state began to look for forms of consolidation of the industry, which ended only in the second half of this decade with the creation of the UAC. At the same time, there was a difficult process of integration “from below”, the core of which was the two surviving companies that had funds from the sale of fighters to China and India - Sukhoi and Irkut. It is not surprising that these two companies put forward projects for new civil aircraft - Sukhoi Superjet, which won the competition in 2002 to create a regional aircraft, and MS-21, the government decree on the creation of which was issued in 2010. At the same time, neither the Tu-204, of which about 80 units were produced in total, nor the Il-96 (more than 20) did not become truly serial due to the lack of introduction in the 90s - early 2000s. their engines, very weak sales support, and IL-96 - and because of the four-engine, less economical than Western competitors, the scheme. At the same time, Boeing and Airbus did not sit idly on the Russian market during the 2000s. occupied a dominant position on it as the mass decommissioning of Soviet aircraft. The issue of international cooperation is no less important. In the mid-2000s, European EADS was the closest to becoming the main partner of the Russian aviation industry: it became the owner of 10% of Irkut shares, and the Russian VTB bank bought 5% of EADS shares on the market. However, there were no decisive steps towards partnership - for various reasons, including political ones.
Airbus's 20-year forecast, published at the June Le Bourget Air Show, is not radically different from Boeing's forecast, but is more moderate. Sales volume by 2034 will amount to $ 4.9 trillion, the total number of new airliners produced will be 32,585 (12% lower than Boeing's), the number of cars with one passenger aisle will be 22,927, and at a cost of 55%. There is, however, a notable difference: Airbus predicts that demand for extra-large aircraft (such as the A380 and Boeing 747) will be 1,550, while Boeing expects only 620 to find buyers. This is not surprising, since the largest and most modern aircraft of this type, the A380, is produced by Airbus, while Boeing abandoned the development of an aircraft of this size in favor of a radical modernization of the Boeing 747. The forecast of the European aviation concern suggests that in 20 years the number of the largest air hubs in the world will grow to 91 from the current 47 (from Russia and now, and in 20 years they will be represented only by the Moscow air hub), namely, the A380 concept is focused on transportation between them.
Share for Sukhoi Superjet
Canadian Bombardier's forecast published last year focuses on aircraft of the size it produces. The company's marketers believe that by 2033 the demand for airliners from 100 to 149 seats (which includes short versions of the Boeing 737 and A319, as well as the airliner CSeries developed by the Canadian company) will amount to 7100 units, or $ 465 billion in monetary terms. Embraer in its forecast published at the last Le Bourget expects the delivery by 2034 of 6,350 jet aircraft with a capacity of 70 to 130 seats, including 380 - in Russia and the CIS countries.
Thus, all forecasts of global aircraft manufacturers provide for a significant market niche for Sukhoi Superjet. The truly serial production of this aircraft (37 units produced), launched last year, has led to the fact that it occupied approximately 10% of the total sales of regional jet airliners.
View from Russia
A representative of Sukhoi Civil Aircraft said that, according to the company's forecasts, for the period 2015–2034. the capacity of the market for cars with a capacity of 91–120 seats will amount to 2,600 units, and the SSJ share - 14%, ie 364 units.
However, much more ambitious is the MS-21 project, which, like the Chinese C919, is aimed at the most capacious niche of the world market, where it will face much tougher competition from Boeing and Airbus, which will be brought to the market in 2016–2017. its new modifications Boeing 737MAX and A320neo, equipped with new highly efficient engines. The MC-21 will have the same engine as the A320neo, but it will be the first airliner with a composite (black) wing and will be equipped with a large number of the latest innovative systems, in 2016 only the first flight is planned (Sukhoi Superjet from the first test flight to the first commercial took about four years).
Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the Aviaport agency, believes that the feasibility of sales plans for new types of Russian aircraft is determined by three factors. First, the production capabilities of the assembly sites - and there are no risks here. Secondly, the stability of cooperation in the supply of components - and this risk in the event of an aggravation of the international situation, the Russian aviation industry does not control. Thirdly, the possibilities of promotion to the world market - this issue is also not controlled by the aviation industry, but if the existing export support policy is maintained, the situation will look controllable.
Continuation. Beginning in No. 5-2009
3. New projects of regional aircraft
Chinese regional aircraft ARJ21
The regional passenger aircraft of the Chinese design ARJ21-700 made its first flight in November 2008. In April 2009, its flight tests began. The ARJ21-700 turbofan airliner is designed for short and medium haul flights. This aircraft is designed to carry 70-110 passengers at a range of up to 3,700 km (the basic model of the aircraft is designed to carry 90 passengers at a range of 2,225 km). Its cost ranges from $ 27 million to $ 29 million. The first shipments of the liners are planned to be handed over to customers in 2010. It is also envisaged to create a cargo version of the aircraft with a maximum carrying capacity of about 10 tons.
ARJ21 is the first chinese liner for the domestic and foreign market of passenger transportation, created in accordance with international standards and with the participation of specialists from other countries. In the creation of a wing with a supercritical profile, Ukrainian aircraft manufacturers from ANTK im. OK. Antonov. When building the aircraft, the Chinese used components from Western manufacturers, for example, Rockwell Collins was chosen as the supplier of avionics, and General Electric was chosen as the power plant. This means that Chinese aircraft manufacturers followed the traditional path of introducing existing world achievements, while simultaneously adopting design experience. The developers claim that the aircraft has an estimated life of 20 years, and the production volume is estimated at about 500 units - 350 for the domestic market in China and 150 for foreign carriers.
Japanese regional aircraft MRJ
The MRJ (Mitsubishi Regional Jet) aircraft is designed as a regional passenger airliner of 70-90 passenger seats. Its developers are Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Fudzy Heavy Industries corporations together with the Japan Aircraft Engineering Association and Toyota (the latter intends to invest 10 billion Japanese yen - about $ 100 million) in the project. The total cost of development is about 120 billion yen (approximately $ 1 billion). Two modifications of the aircraft are being developed - for 70-80 and 86-96 passenger seats. The flight range of the aircraft should be from 1600 to 3900 km. The American company Pratt & Whittney (P&W) will develop the engine. Pre-orders for 100 aircraft have been received, and, in addition to Japanese airlines JAL and ANA, foreign air carriers have also begun to show attention to the new aircraft.
The new aircraft should take off in 2012 and appear on the market in early 2013. The first aircraft with a 90-seat layout (MRJ90) will be received by the launch customer, Japan's All Nippon Airways. The second largest Japanese carrier ordered 15 units. 90-seater cars with an option for 10 more liners. The cost of the base MRJ90 is estimated at $ 38 million. In total, Mitsubishi expects to sell from 300 to 500 MRJ aircraft. The possibility of creating an "extended" version for 115 seats is also being considered.
New projects from Bombardier
According to the forecast of the Canadian firm Bombardier, in the next 20 years the world's airlines will need 6,300 units of 100-149-seater aircraft worth over $ 250 billion. The company's goal is to get half of this market. In 2008, Bombardier announced the start of a production program for a family of new CSeries aircraft with a typical 5-in-row seating arrangement in the cabin. The aircraft development program began in 2004, and the aircraft are scheduled to enter service in 2013. The designation of the new aircraft in this series is CS100 and CS300 with a capacity of 110-115 and 122-145 passengers, respectively. The aircraft's flight range is about 3000 km. There are modifications СS100ER and СS300ER with flight range increased to 5000 km. The price of the aircraft is about $ 51 million.
New aircraft will have to emit less carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides than existing regional aircraft (up to 20 and 50%, respectively) and will be four times less noisy. It is also expected to reduce fuel consumption and operating costs by 20% and 15%, respectively. Thus, at the maximum density of the passenger compartment layout, CSeries aircraft will consume only two liters of fuel to transport one passenger per 100 km.
Bombardier continues to market the next generation of its CRJ NG (Next Generation) regional aircraft. The company offered carriers a lightweight version of the CRJ-1000 EuroLite (EL) aircraft with 100 seats. Compared to the base aircraft, the new aircraft is 1.8 tons lighter. The new version is designed to minimize the costs of European operators who need a short-haul aircraft. The CRJ aircraft project was launched in 2007 and in 2008 the aircraft made its maiden flight. Commissioning is scheduled for 2010. Development of the CRJ-1000ER variant with a flight range increased to 3130 km is envisaged.
Embraer's new projects
The newest project of the Brazilian company Embraer is the regional aircraft E-195, which entered service in 2006. It differs from its predecessors E-190/175/170 by the increased number of passenger seats to 106-122 and a flight range of 3990 km for the 195 LR version ...
Embraer intends, like Bombardier, to continue to increase the number of seats in regional aircraft and in 2011 to step over 120 seats and move on. The next family of regional aircraft is expected to appear closer to 2020, after which they will be able to really compete with the A320 and B737 aircraft.
Conclusions: there is a rather tough and uncompromising struggle on the world civil aircraft market, which is called competition. The market itself is divided quite clearly: in the field of long-haul aircraft, it is dominated by Boeing and Airbus corporations, which are unlikely to allow other players to enter it. Those seeking to occupy some small niche on it are sent letters of recommendation from top officials with an insistent recommendation to buy Western aircraft, and first try themselves at a smaller level. Such a recommendation was given to Russia a few years ago, after which we focused on the regional SSJ 100 and An-148 projects, as well as the MC21 short-medium-haul aircraft.
In the regional aircraft market, we will have to compete primarily with Embraer and Bombardier, which will soon be joined by Chinese and Japanese manufacturers. Quite a lot of materials have already been published in the press regarding the projects of the SSJ 100, An-148 and MS-21 aircraft. The developers do not always meet the promised deadlines yet, but they are trying to guarantee a sufficiently high technical level of aircraft. However, there is still some annoyance left: why did our developers choose to sSJ aircraft 100 with a capacity of 75–130 seats, when foreign manufacturers have long been planning to produce much more spacious regional aircraft (up to 149 seats). This is due to the fact that in the international market, the demand for aircraft with a capacity of up to 100 seats fell long ago. Why make known unprofitable aircraft? Perhaps a compromise will still be found when Russia and Ukraine will be able to reasonably divide this capacity range among themselves, leaving the Ukrainian An-148 aircraft a niche for 70–88 seats, and for the Superjet - for 100–130 seats.
A competitor for our promising MC-21 aircraft is also planned. As the line between regional and short-haul aircraft is gradually blurring, Boeing and Airbus corporations usually create a line of aircraft models of various sizes at once. Several years ago, the B737-600 (110 passenger seats) lost the tender to the Brazilian Embraer 190/195 aircraft (114-122 seats). However, after 2015–2018. Boeing will already be free of the problems of creating the B787 aircraft and, in order not to lose the market, intends to create a new aircraft to replace the B737 aircraft. At the same time, Boeing plans to develop two aircraft models: one for 110–130 seats, the other with a larger capacity. The Airbus corporation is also preparing its own project in this class of aircraft.
But there is one more scenario. As it was already in the class of long-haul aircraft, Russia can be offered to participate in the development of these projects together with Boeing or Airbus. What then? Surely we will agree again and will help to design, blow through, cast titanium blanks for individual units, etc.? Or maybe this will help us gain the necessary experience in order to further revive our aviation industry and enter the international aviation market? It is this path that China is trying to master now.
We really have a lot to learn from the world's leading aviation corporations that have tremendous experience in conquering the market. Here are just a few features that characterize the work and reasons for the success of the Boeing and Airbus corporations:
International organizational structure of the corporation.
Obligatory international cooperation in the development and construction of aircraft, allowing you to share economic risks and ensure a guaranteed mutual access of project participants to the markets.
The presence of a stable team of highly qualified workers.
The presence of a line of modern aircraft, while this line usually follows a certain sequence of technological innovations.
High technical level of aircraft (performance characteristics, reliability, safety, comfort, interior design and equipment).
Aircraft compliance with international environmental requirements (noise level, environmental pollution).
Multistage system for training the crew and those. personnel (usually for a family of aircraft of the same type, allowing pilots to transfer from one aircraft to another without retraining).
Providing aircraft maintenance worldwide.
We have already lost much of what is listed here and we need to recreate it, and this requires both time and considerable funds. Whether we are ready for a new leap forward or not, the coming years will show.
A major reform has begun in the Russian aviation industry since 2006, when the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) was established. Now we are talking about the merger of the UAC, the Irkut corporation and the Sukhoi Civil Aircraft company into a single structure that will deal with all the civilian programs of the UAC. It will also become the head division of the entire corporation.
This means that the UAC considers the civil aircraft industry a key area. On the one hand, in the face of a reduction in the state defense order, the inevitability of which has already been repeatedly stated at the highest level, aircraft manufacturers do not have to choose. On the other hand, if the authority of Russia in the field of military aviation is not challenged by anyone, then on the civil aircraft market our country is classified as an outsider.
Which is quite fair, considering that only 30 civil aircraft were produced in Russia last year. For comparison, the market leaders, Boeing and Airbus, produced 748 and 577 aircraft, respectively.
A logical question arises - what can the UAC count on in the current situation?
Big pie
According to the forecast, which the United Aircraft Corporation presented at the July MAKS-2017 air show, the global demand for new passenger aircraft with a capacity of more than 30 seats in the next twenty years will amount to 41,800 aircraft with a total value of almost $ 6 trillion.
At the same time, narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of 120 or more seats will be in the greatest demand among airlines, which will account for 63% of the total number of new aircraft. For this segment, the UAC is developing the MC-21 program.
New jet aircraft with a capacity of 61-120 seats by 2036 will be sold about 4.6 thousand units (11% of the total). This segment in the UAC is represented by the Sukhoi Superjet SSJ 100 program.
The demand for turboprop aircraft with a capacity of 30 or more seats will be about 2.3 thousand units. In this segment, the UAC is developing the Il-114 program.
The total demand for wide-body aircraft will amount to 7,450 aircraft. For this segment, the UAC jointly with the China Corporation civil aircraft SOMAS plans to develop and produce a new generation wide-body long-range aircraft. A joint venture was opened in Shanghai this year to manage the program.
That is, theoretically, Russian aircraft manufacturers have something to answer the market demands. In practice, everything is a little more complicated.
Three gray horses
To begin with, only Sukhoi Superjet is actually present on the market today. This is the first domestic aircraft developed after a quarter-century break. Unfortunately, the hopes associated with this project were only partially justified.
Pilots who have piloted the Superjet rate the aircraft very highly - no worse than the Airbus A-320 (with better efficiency) and definitely better than the Brazilian Embraer. At the same time, they recognize the presence of many minor malfunctions, which, however, do not affect flight safety. The main complaint of professionals is related to very poor service support, which is why the planes are idle for a long time without spare parts.
Passengers have more complaints - there is poor noise and vibration isolation ("I sat in the 7F seat near the engine and received free vibration massage - very loud noise and vibration"), as well as small and low windows.
Most often, Russians compare the SSJ 100 with the UAZ patriot car: good transport for passengers without any special complaints. It is noteworthy that the Mexican pilots (the Mexican company Interjet acquired 30 SSJ 100) dubbed the "Superjet" tank.
It is clear that with such characteristics it is not easy to conquer the world market. As a result, the project remains chronically unprofitable. To reach the profitability of the UAC, it is necessary to sell at least 300 aircraft, but so far it has sold three times less. The maximum annual production of SSJ 100 was reached in 2014 - 35 aircraft were produced. In 2015-2016, due to changes in the macroeconomic situation, sales plans were adjusted to 17 and 18 units, respectively.
For comparison, the Brazilian Embraer last year produced 225 aircraft: 117 business jets and 108 regional aircraft - Superjet's competitors. It is not surprising that recently the president of the UAC, Yuri Slyusar, announced that it was abandoning large volumes of SSJ production: the corporation plans to produce 30-40 Superjets per year, but is not going to "scale this project to large volumes."
Now the main hope of the UAC has become the MS-21 project. This aircraft is close in characteristics to the current segment leader - the Canadian Bombardier СS300. Like the Canadian aircraft, the Russian one is built according to the most modern technologies using composite materials and with the same Pratt & Whitney engines (however, in the future, it is planned to install the domestic PD-14 engine on the MS-21). Economical engines and lightweight body allow Bombardier СS300 and MC-21 to save up to 20% fuel compared to by Boeing aircraft and Airbus of this class. At the same time, the MS-21 is more capacious than the Bombardier CS300 - it has 176 passenger seats (the Canadian has 130), which makes its use more profitable.
Il-114 is an airplane from the past: it made its first flight back in 1999 and until 2012 was produced at the Tashkent Aviation Production Association named after I. V.P. Chkalov. In total, ten Il-114s were produced with Pratt & Whitney Canada engines. Now these aircraft are included in the Uzbekistan Airways fleet.
The United Aircraft Corporation plans to resume production of the Il-114 with Russian TV7-117ST engines at the plant in Lukhovitsy, which will produce 12-18 aircraft per year. The total volume of production, including civilian and special versions, can be 100 vehicles. The updated Il-114 should make its first flight in 2018.
Aeroflot against the Ministry of Industry and Trade
The main problem that the UAC must solve is not related to the development or production of new aircraft, but to their sale. It is already clear that the "Superjet" will not reach the production rate of 300 aircraft required to pay off the project. MS-21 with the current investment will pay off after the sale of 200 aircraft. The already produced IL-114 has the greatest chances of paying off - if the planned 100 aircraft are produced and sold, the project can be considered commercially successful.
Meanwhile, according to Boeing estimates, the needs of the Russian market for the foreseeable future will amount to a maximum of 40 passenger aircraft of all types per year. It is unlikely that MS-21, SSJ-100 and Il-114 will occupy all this volume. Although the government is doing everything possible and impossible for this. In particular, the Ministry of Industry and Trade proposed to abolish the privileges for the import of foreign aircraft, which "will establish customs and tariff protection of the domestic market in the interests of Russian aircraft - SSJ 100 extended version and MS-21-300."
This innovation was actively opposed by Aeroflot, whose fleet in 2018 should receive 31 (!) Foreign aircraft. The company sent a letter to First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, in which it is noted that if the preferential regime is suspended, additional costs for the import of aircraft will exceed 25 billion rubles. As a result, Aeroflot will have to reduce the purchase plan for aircraft "of both foreign and Russian production", which will not allow expanding route network, "including regional and socially significant routes".
Photo: portal Moscow 24 / Lidia Shironina
Unreal export
Even if the main russian airline not eager to abandon the import of aircraft for the sake of supporting the Superjet and MS-21, then what to say about foreigners. Moreover, foreign buyers of new Russian aircraft will have to take into account a bunch of additional risks.
First, the Irkut corporation, the manufacturer of the MC-21, is known in the world as a manufacturer of fighters. The first civilian aircraft produced by the corporation will be greeted by airlines with great caution. It will be possible to talk about purchases only when the experience of operating the MS-21 at Aeroflot has been gained (which will have to acquire new aircraft on a voluntary-compulsory basis).
Secondly, any new aircraft requires fine-tuning and revision, which on average takes about 15 years. And no serious airline will order large quantities of aircraft that have not passed this period. But even after that, new manufacturers such as Irkut can only rely on orders from small carriers that do not have their own aircraft maintenance and repair facilities. It is these companies that are less tied to market leaders.
Thirdly, in 2018, the Chinese C919 enters the medium-range aircraft market, which, relying on the massive support of its government, can become a serious competitor to all world manufacturers.
Thus, for at least the next 15-20 years, the Russian aircraft industry will be a planned unprofitable industry, living largely on budget subsidies. In these conditions, it is very likely that the Ministry of Finance will lobby for another optimization of the aircraft industry, after which only the export-attractive military segment will remain from the industry.
